BANGKOK, THAILAND – Thailand’s tourism authority is reassessing its 2026 goals, as the impact of the Middle East conflict appears less severe than anticipated, making a significant drop in arrivals unlikely. The TAT is signaling a recovery in long-haul markets and aims to boost both visitor numbers and per-person spending.
TAT reconsidering earlier forecast as too cautious
The Governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand, Thapanee Kiatphaibool, stated that the previously projected scenario of 30–32 million foreign arrivals for 2026 needs re-evaluation. Instead of a 5–10 percent decrease, the authority now anticipates a drop of well under five percent, possibly only 1–2 percent or no decline at all, compared to 32.97 million visitors in 2025.
Thapanee found the initial assumptions to be too conservative and announced that the figures would be discussed with the Minister of Tourism and the TAT Board after further observation. A definitive revision is still pending.
TTM+ 2026 in Pattaya shows Middle East demand
The Thailand Travel Mart Plus (TTM+), held from June 10 to 12 at the Nong Nooch Pattaya International Convention and Exhibition Centre in Chonburi, brought together many buyers from the Middle East. Participants showed particular interest in health and wellness offerings and new marketing campaigns.
The presence of buyers from the region was seen by the TAT as a positive sign, contributing to the assessment that the decline from the Middle East would be less pronounced than initially feared.
January–May: Slight decreases in arrivals and revenue
Between January 1 and May 31, approximately 14,032,649 foreign tourists visited Thailand, marking a 2.3 percent decrease compared to the previous year. Tourism revenue amounted to roughly 679.274 billion baht, a drop of 2.48 percent.
In May alone, Thailand recorded 2,346,845 arrivals, a 3.54 percent increase from the same month last year, which the TAT interprets as a sign of emerging recovery.
Regional differences: Middle East improving, Asia-Pacific weakening
Arrivals from the Middle East (excluding Iran and Israel) stood at 150,779 in the first five months, a 24.83 percent decrease. In May, Middle East arrivals numbered 47,726, showing only a 1.9 percent reduction.
Europe reported 3,965,179 visitors (+0.26 percent), the Americas saw 704,789 visitors (+0.31 percent), and the Asia-Pacific region welcomed 9,146,708 visitors (-3.08 percent). In May, arrivals from the Americas increased by 3.56 percent and from the Asia-Pacific region by 4.53 percent.
Visa policy a risk for Indian market, MICE, and weddings
The cabinet agreed in principle on May 19 to abolish the 60-day visa-free entry for 93 countries and revert to previous regulations; however, the change has not yet taken effect. Thapanee warned that this requires discussions with relevant authorities to avoid jeopardizing growth in the Indian market.
She specifically highlighted potential impacts on MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Exhibitions) travelers and wedding groups, calling for coordination to prevent the segment from suffering under a stricter visa policy.
Strategy: Higher spending per visitor and new flight routes
The TAT intends not only to focus on arrival numbers but primarily to increase per-person spending and attract new long-haul travelers. Part of the strategy involves securing airlines from the Middle East and opening routes to Thai hubs like U-Tapao to meet future demand.
“The important task is to stimulate spending and support the factors that influence tourist expenditure by opening up new groups of travelers, new partners, and new forms of cooperation,” said Thapanee.
The TAT plans to announce revised targets after further discussions with the minister and the board.