BANGKOK, THAILAND – Thailand is preparing for a new El Niño event, with warnings of severe consequences for its economy and society.
Climate models sound the alarm
Current data strongly indicates the onset of a significant El Niño phenomenon. Leading climate agencies, including the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), all predict a strong El Niño development in the coming months. This weather pattern is expected to last until early 2027.
Minister of Natural Resources, Suchart Chomklin, confirmed these grim projections on June 17. He stated that Thailand is highly likely to enter a prolonged dry period, with probabilities reaching as high as 98 percent.
Government responds with a package of measures
The government has prioritized disaster management and climate adaptation, declaring them top priorities. Measures to mitigate risks include improved water resource management, enhanced disaster protection systems, and the development of a national insurance framework. Thailand remains committed to its goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, emphasizing sustainable natural resource management as a key component.
Worry about the rainy season
Experts anticipate significantly less rainfall than usual across many parts of the country between June of this year and January 2027. This is particularly concerning as it coincides with the main rainy season, which typically runs from June to August. As a result, crop failures and water scarcity are looming in the coming months.
High-resolution risk maps in progress
The Department of Climate Change and Environmental Affairs (DCCE) is actively developing detailed climate databases. These databases are intended to improve planning for droughts, floods, and other extreme weather events. DCCE Director-General Pirun Saiyasitpanich stressed the need for precise monitoring of environmental changes. He highlighted the importance of closely tracking shifts in rainfall and temperature patterns.
Expected intensification at year-end
Climate models suggest that the El Niño phenomenon will intensify between November 2026 and January 2027. During this period, the event could reach its peak intensity, potentially severely impacting productive sectors of the economy. Minister Suchart Chomklin emphasized that substantial damages are a real threat without adequate preparations. The upcoming months are crucial for protecting the population and businesses from these potential consequences.