BANGKOK, THAILAND – Thai gold dealers sharply raised their global price forecasts after a rapid rally since the start of the year pushed bullion far beyond earlier expectations.
Bangkok prices surge in step with global rally
Gold prices in Thailand had risen steeply since early 2026, with the price per baht-weight (15.244 grams) gaining almost 10,000 baht and climbing above 75,000 baht, in line with the international market. According to Dr Kritcharat Hirunyasiri, chairman of MTS Gold Mae Thongsuk, domestic prices increased by around 12–13% or about 8,000–9,000 baht per baht-weight, while global gold gained roughly 16% over the same period.
Forecasts lifted to as high as $6,400 an ounce
Dr Kritcharat saw significant further upside given the momentum and said MTS Gold had raised its world price forecast from about $5,000 per ounce to $6,400. At today’s exchange rate, that would correspond to roughly 88,000 baht per baht-weight in Thailand. He described the move as exceptionally fast, noting that in 2025 gold had taken about three months to rise by around 17%, while a similar increase in 2026 occurred within about one month, and MTS Gold now expected a total gain of about 50% this year in line with the new $6,400 target.
Pawan Nawawattanasub, chief executive of YLG Bullion International, also expected prices to continue rising and saw potential for the market to reach $5,400 per ounce.
Dollar trust erosion and rate-cut hopes cited
As a key driver, Dr Kritcharat pointed to a structural weakening of confidence in the US dollar, linked to the economic and trade policies of US President Donald Trump, which he said had increased pressure on trading partners and triggered countermeasures.
“We are seeing a stronger reduction in holdings of US Treasuries and US dollars, while many countries and investors are expanding their gold holdings as a safe haven. This has pushed gold prices significantly higher.”
said Dr Kritcharat Hirunyasiri, chairman of MTS Gold Mae Thongsuk.
He additionally referred to possible interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve that could further support gold and which, in his view, were not yet fully priced in.
Technical picture: overbought but still bullish
From YLG’s perspective, gold remained clearly in an uptrend on a technical basis, with Pawan stressing that prices were trading above short-, medium- and long-term moving averages, indicating ongoing buying interest. As long as the price held above support around $4,640 per ounce, she said, next targets at $5,100–$5,136 and then $5,400 were possible before a larger correction might set in.
At the same time she issued a caution, saying gold was currently overbought on 4‑hour, daily and weekly charts and that a divergence had appeared against the weekly RSI indicator.
“The market could pause or pull back to gather new strength.”
said Pawan Nawawattanasub, CEO of YLG Bullion International.
If the price fell below $4,640, she expected an initial correction, but as long as the $4,274 level held she viewed this as a consolidation within an intact uptrend.
Speculators and ETFs underpin broad-based demand
YLG reported that the latest buying wave from late December into January had been broadly based, even though profit-taking by some speculators, ETF funds and individual states had been seen at times. Most central banks nevertheless remained long-term holders and net buyers, helping to support the long-term uptrend in gold.
Key demand sources included COMEX speculators, where in the week to 20 January long positions rose by 4,843 to 163,668 contracts and short positions by 2,144 to 26,224. The resulting net long of 137,444 contracts, equivalent to 427.53 tonnes, pointed to a strong role for the retail investor segment.
Record ETF holdings and strong Chinese buying
Globally, gold ETFs increased their holdings by 800.3 tonnes in 2025 to 4,024.5 tonnes, a new record, and added another 35.8 tonnes in the first half of January for a total of 4,064.7 tonnes. In China, 115 tonnes were withdrawn from the Shanghai Gold Exchange in December, 36% more than the previous month, as retailers built inventories ahead of Lunar New Year.
Chinese gold ETFs booked inflows for the fourth consecutive month, lifting their holdings by 3.9 billion yuan (about $545 million), or roughly 3.8 tonnes. The People’s Bank of China bought gold for the 14th straight month in December, adding 0.9 tonnes and bringing official gold reserves at the end of 2025 to 2,306 tonnes, about 8.5% of total foreign exchange reserves.
India shifts from physical to digital gold
In India, high prices dampened physical demand, while purchases of digital gold via the UPI payment system rose sharply in 2025. Transaction volume increased from 8 billion rupees (around $88 million) in January to 21 billion rupees (about $231 million) in December, nearly tripling over the year.
YLG expected that, despite short-term profit-taking, central banks would remain net buyers overall and thereby continue to underpin the long-term upward trend in the gold market.