PARIS, FRANCE – The International Energy Agency warned that Europe could face a critical shortage of jet fuel within weeks if key shipping lanes remain blocked.
IEA raises alarm over dwindling reserves
On 17 April, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that Europe could be confronted with a shortage of aviation fuel within a matter of weeks. According to its assessment, existing stocks might last for only about six weeks before the situation reached a critical point in June.
The agency cautioned that in the worst case, flight cancellations could already occur in the summer if replacement deliveries from other regions did not become available quickly enough. The warning focused on the risk that airports could struggle to secure sufficient supplies during the peak travel season.
Background: Strait of Hormuz closure disrupts key routes
The IEA attributed the alert to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, which has disrupted central transport routes. The continued blockade of shipping lanes made it harder for Europe to obtain supplies from the Middle East as it had done previously.
The report highlighted that Europe’s fuel security was closely linked to these maritime corridors. Any prolonged restriction on tanker movements through the strait threatened to tighten the availability of aviation fuel across the continent.
Summer travel at risk from fuel-driven flight cuts
IEA executive director Fatih Birol said that flight cancellations could soon become visible if the blocked routes remained in place.
“Cancellations of flights could already be seen soon if the routes remain blocked.”
said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA.
He explained that an insufficient volume of available jet fuel could directly limit operations at airports. According to the agency, the risk was not only higher prices but also physical shortages that might force airlines to reduce schedules.
Replacement thresholds: 50% and 75% scenarios
The IEA stated that real bottlenecks could occur at individual airports if Europe managed to replace less than 50% of the volumes lost due to the disruption. In such a scenario, local shortages could emerge even if overall stocks appeared adequate at the regional level.
Even with a replacement rate of 75%, the risk could persist until August if the situation did not ease. The agency underlined that sustained constraints on supply routes would keep the aviation sector exposed for several months.
Europe’s pre-crisis dependence on Middle East supplies
Before the current crisis, Europe obtained around 75% of its jet fuel imports from the Middle East, according to the IEA. This high level of import dependence has made the supply chain particularly vulnerable to sudden interruptions.
The disruption underscored how concentrated sourcing from a single region could translate into systemic risk. The IEA’s figures illustrated that any long-lasting blockage of Middle Eastern flows would be difficult to compensate fully in the short term.
New suppliers: United States and Nigeria step in
Several countries were seeking new sources of supply, including from the United States and Nigeria, the IEA reported. These alternative routes were intended to bridge at least part of the gap created by the blocked Middle Eastern exports.
Although U.S. exports had risen rapidly in recent weeks, they had so far been able to offset only slightly more than half of the lost volumes. The agency indicated that, without a broader diversification of supply or an easing of the blockade, Europe’s aviation fuel market would likely remain under pressure.