BANGKOK, THAILAND – A sharp escalation in the Middle East conflict on February 28, 2026 sent flight prices to Thailand skyrocketing, with some German travelers paying up to 3,200 euros for an economy round trip. By late April, prices had eased significantly. Lufthansa offers Munich–Bangkok from around 766 euros, and Condor from Frankfurt from about 500 euros. However, the crisis has shifted from a price shock to a structural problem.
What the War Did to Flight Connections
The conflict brought air traffic over the Gulf to a near halt overnight. Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad – three major hubs – had carried a large share of European travelers to Thailand. Since late February, airspace over Iran, Iraq, and parts of the Gulf region has been closed or avoided by airlines. Affordable connecting flights for 700 to 900 euros have disappeared from the market.Qatar Airways grounded all eight A380 aircraft for April and May 2026. Over 12,000 planned flights were canceled, and 64 destinations were temporarily suspended, including Bangkok–Doha. Etihad operates a reduced schedule, and Emirates replaced the A380 with smaller planes on several routes. European travelers who previously used these hubs now face higher costs or alternative itineraries.
The Kerosene Problem – and the Worst-Case Scenario
Aviation experts have warned of a scenario in which a European airline flies to Bangkok but cannot obtain fuel for the return flight. Lufthansa Group CEO Carsten Spohr publicly described this as a real danger.
“First Asian airports are no longer accepting additional flights – and long-haul routes are particularly at risk because return fuel cannot simply be taken from the departure airport.”
said Carsten Spohr, CEO of Lufthansa Group.Thailand imports most of its jet fuel from the Gulf region, where the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked for weeks. Kerosene prices have more than tripled at times. For a single Munich–Bangkok flight, fuel costs rose from about 30,000 euros before the war to between 70,000 and 90,000 euros. These extra costs force airlines to cancel, merge, or permanently suspend flights.
What Airlines Are Doing Now
Thai Airways cut or merged more than 46 connections for May 2026, including direct flights to Frankfurt and Munich reduced from daily to five per week. The airline set up a crisis team to monitor bookings and energy prices daily. Thai AirAsia suspended nine international routes from Don Mueang until October, including Singapore, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur, and several Indian destinations. Low-cost carriers Thai Lion Air and Nok Air also cut further routes.Lufthansa announced the cancellation of around 20,000 short-haul flights by end of May to save kerosene. Long-haul operations continue, but CEO Carsten Spohr warned that if the blockade persists, the fleet could be reduced by up to 5 percent, grounding about 40 additional aircraft. Condor, however, continues to operate Frankfurt–Bangkok daily, currently offering the most reliable direct connection on that route.
Which Airlines Are Currently Flying Safely to Thailand
Direct flights avoiding Gulf hubs are the safest option. Lufthansa and Thai Airways fly directly from Frankfurt and Munich to Bangkok, taking a detour via the Caucasus or Central Asia, which adds about 30 minutes. Condor flies daily nonstop from Frankfurt to Bangkok and Phuket. Turkish Airlines via Istanbul is another stable route. Connecting through Singapore, Seoul, or Tokyo offers reliable links, albeit at higher prices than before the war.Gulf airlines are gradually recovering. Qatar Airways reinstated Dubai and Sharjah as of April 23. A380 flights to Bangkok are scheduled to resume from June 1, but that date is a target, not a guarantee. Travelers with bookings via Doha or Abu Dhabi should regularly check their booking status and have flexible rebooking options.
Where Prices Are Going – and Where They Could Go
The March shock of over 3,000 euros is over. Current bookings for a Munich–Bangkok round trip with Lufthansa are about 766 euros for cheap June dates; Condor from Frankfurt offers 500 to 600 euros per leg for similar periods. The six-month average price is around 636 euros, including the crisis months of March and April. However, the outlook for the peak season from November 2026 is different. Airlines’ fuel hedge contracts – advance purchases of kerosene at fixed prices – are gradually expiring. Once airlines must buy fuel at current market rates, costs will be passed directly to ticket prices. Experts expect full price increases to appear in autumn and winter. Those booking for November to March and waiting could face unpleasant surprises.
What This Means for Thailand Tourism
The numbers are clear. In March 2026, 2.77 million tourists arrived in Thailand – 15 percent fewer than the previous month. Koh Samui reported booking declines of about 50 percent. The Tourism Authority of Thailand cut its annual forecast by 18 percent, now expecting 30 to 34 million international arrivals instead of the original nearly 41 million. European travelers – Germans, British, French – are among the highest-spending groups, and their absence is particularly painful.For expats and long-term residents who regularly fly to Germany, the advice is to book return flights early. Fuel supply at Suvarnabhumi Airport is no longer a theoretical issue – it is why Thai Airways halved frequencies to Frankfurt and Munich in May. Anyone planning to return to Europe in September or October should book now while conditions remain somewhat predictable.
How Thailand Can Emerge From This Situation
The key variable is the conflict in the Middle East. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and airspace over Iran and Iraq is closed, the basic structure of the problem will not change. Thailand can only react, not control. The aviation authority is negotiating tax reductions on kerosene and lower airport fees to mitigate the damage but not solve it. Hotels and resorts in tourism-heavy regions have shifted to cheaper prices and extended early-bird offers – a clear sign of the seriousness.However, there is a counter-mechanism: the more expensive Europe flights become, the more attractive Thailand becomes for travelers from China, India, Malaysia, and Russia – markets largely unaffected by the Middle East conflict. In the first quarter of 2026, these countries provided the largest visitor groups. Thailand has survived pandemics, political unrest, and floods; tourism has always returned. The country works. It is the flights that have become more expensive, not the destination.
What to Do Now
Anyone with Thailand plans for the peak season from November to March should book now, not later. Direct flights without a Gulf stopover are more expensive but more reliable. Those who want to transit via Qatar or Emirates need flexible rebooking options: Qatar Airways currently offers free date changes for bookings made by September 15, 2026, with rebooking until October. Booking portals like Google Flights show calendar views with the cheapest days; shifting by two to three days can save several hundred euros.For expats and long-term residents in Thailand who must travel to Europe regularly: secure return flights now before hedge contracts expire and kerosene prices are fully factored into tickets. The 2026/27 peak season could become more expensive than anything seen before. How much depends on what happens in the Gulf in the coming weeks – a factor beyond the control of booking portals.
Editorial Notes
Price data in this article is based on publicly accessible booking portals and industry reports as of April 29, 2026. Airline fares change daily. The situation in the Middle East is volatile – current travel and flight status information should be checked directly with the booked airline.