BANGKOK, THAILAND – The surprise dissolution of Thailand’s parliament reshaped the political battlefield, with Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s party emerging as the main beneficiary while its partners came under pressure.
Calculated move to dodge confidence test
According to political scientist Yutthaporn Isarachai of Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, the dissolution was a calculated step. The government had aimed to avoid a planned vote of no confidence by the opposition and to preserve the Senate’s veto power in the constitutional amendment process. When the opposition leader announced an impending confidence motion, Anutin moved quickly.
“The government had clearly prepared several scenarios.”
said Yutthaporn Isarachai, political scientist.
Bhumjaithai seen with clear advantage
Despite criticism over flood relief efforts and the failed constitutional overhaul, the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) was assessed as having more to gain than to lose.
“The party has already completed reshuffles at the top of the government, which gives it a strong advantage for the early election.”
said Yutthaporn Isarachai, political scientist.
Its access to state power and control over key agencies was seen as giving Bhumjaithai a decisive edge in the looming three-way contest.
People’s Party on the defensive
For the People’s Party (PP), Bhumjaithai’s coalition partner, the outlook appeared bleak after its core goal of a new constitution failed.
“The party must answer difficult questions about why it supported BJT in forming the government and did not enforce the coalition agreement.”
said Yutthaporn Isarachai, political scientist.
Political scientist Stithorn Thananithichot of Chulalongkorn University issued a warning.
“The party relies entirely on its momentum. If it fails to ignite that momentum, it is finished.”
said Stithorn Thananithichot, political scientist.
Pheu Thai remains a stable force
The opposition Pheu Thai Party could also benefit from the early election if it used the situation skilfully. Its voter base remained stable, and the party was seen as having the potential to win more than 100 seats, while expected defections of MPs were unlikely to exceed 20. As a result, Pheu Thai was viewed as a credible third force in the anticipated neck-and-neck race with BJT and PP.
Tight three-way race and border unknowns
Experts expected the coming election to be a close contest between the three parties, with each potentially securing over 100 seats.
“Either the PP or BJT could come out on top, but Pheu Thai should not be underestimated.”
said Yutthaporn Isarachai, political scientist.
The major unknown remained public sentiment along the border with Cambodia, where rising nationalist feelings could play into the hands of established parties.
Campaign marathon under way
With the dissolution of the House, the official election campaign marathon began. Bhumjaithai entered the race with the resources of incumbency, while PP leaned on its strong social media presence among young voters. Pheu Thai relied on its long-established base, and who would ultimately form the next government remained open in what observers described as Thailand’s biggest political jolt in years.