BANGKOK, THAILAND – Flights between Europe and Thailand have become dramatically more expensive as the war in Iran disrupts key Gulf hubs and pushes up fuel costs.
Why flights to Thailand suddenly cost three times more
Travellers trying to book trips to Thailand faced a price shock as economy tickets from Munich to Bangkok on Lufthansa exceeded 3,200 euros, described as a direct consequence of the war in Iran. The major Gulf hubs Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha, through which a large share of Europe–Asia traffic had passed, were largely paralysed from late February 2026. Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways resumed operations only gradually and on a reduced scale, depending on daily airspace conditions.
According to aviation expert Heinrich Großbongardt, Gulf carriers had previously handled around half of total traffic between Europe and Asia. Those capacities had not yet been fully restored, leaving a substantial gap in available seats. European airlines diverted traffic via Istanbul and Singapore, which meant longer routes and higher operating costs.
On top of that came a sharp rise in jet fuel prices. The Strait of Hormuz, a central oil transport route, was blocked by the conflict, reducing available kerosene and driving up costs. Tourism specialist Prof. Harald Zeiss from Hochschule Harz summed up the effect:
“Connections to Bangkok have become between two and five times more expensive because the shorter route over the Persian Gulf is no longer possible and the detours cause considerable additional costs.”
said Prof. Harald Zeiss, tourism expert.
For German-speaking visitors to Thailand or residents returning to Europe, this translated into more expensive tickets, longer travel times and the cancellation of package deals to the Gulf. Thailand’s tourism industry, which had only just begun to recover from the coronavirus years, came under renewed pressure.
Early bookers insulated as new customers face full market prices
Those who had booked and paid for Thailand trips before the war began were protected from retroactive price hikes. Valid contracts and down payments shielded travellers from higher flight, rental car or hotel costs, regardless of subsequent increases. Tui spokesperson Aage Dünhaupt confirmed to t‑online that long-haul prices had risen noticeably; tour operators would absorb extra costs for advance bookings, while new bookings would be charged at the current market rate.
Etihad was meanwhile trying to attract passengers with comparatively low fares, with return tickets from Zurich to Bangkok via Abu Dhabi starting at around 540 Swiss francs. This was possible because capacity was available while demand was still responding cautiously. However, the German Foreign Office continued to warn against connecting flights via the Gulf region, so many German tour operators did not officially offer these routes, leaving those who booked directly with airlines to bear the risk themselves.
Swiss carrier Swiss reported that its flights to Bangkok were almost fully booked, not because of fare increases but because the cheapest fare buckets sold out quickly. Travellers flexible on departure airport and travel period – for example choosing Vienna, Zurich or Düsseldorf instead of Frankfurt, or trips in the low season – could still find acceptable prices.
Package holidays to the Gulf states wiped out
Holidaymakers with trips to the United Arab Emirates, Qatar or Bahrain received bleak news. German tour operators cancelled all package holidays to these destinations based on travel warnings from the Foreign Office. This particularly affected customers who had been persuaded by intensive advertising from Arab tourism authorities.
Two Tui cruise ships, “Mein Schiff 4” and “Mein Schiff 5”, were also hit, having initially been in Abu Dhabi and Doha and then evacuated by air bridge. As the Suez Canal was being avoided for the return journey, the vessels took the long route around the Cape of Good Hope. The detour illustrated the logistical scale of the crisis for maritime as well as air travel.
Thailand feels the decline – with Phuket under pressure
The impact in Thailand itself was already visible. The Tourism Council of Thailand warned that up to 300,000 international visitors could be lost within a month if the crisis continued. Phuket was seen as particularly vulnerable because many European luxury travellers preferred to arrive on Gulf carriers.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand, TAT, set up a situation centre internally referred to as a “War Room” to monitor booking trends, flight capacity and fuel prices on a daily basis. In 2025 Thailand had welcomed nearly 33 million foreign visitors, more than one in five of whom came from Europe or the Middle East.
The oil price shock also hit domestic logistics. At Bangkok Suvarnabhumi airport only around 2,500 taxis were in service instead of the usual 6,000, as many drivers refused long trips due to higher fuel costs. This created an additional burden for visitors on the ground, who faced longer waits and potentially higher fares.
Europe gains as Mallorca, Turkey and Greece benefit
Many travellers who gave up on long‑haul trips switched to European destinations, a trend reflected clearly in booking data. At Tui, three quarters of all summer bookings went to European locations, led by classic Mediterranean regions such as Mallorca, Antalya, Crete, Rhodes and the Canary Islands. Eurowings reported a surprising Mallorca boom over Easter, with extra flights selling out quickly.
Mallorca also sought to change its image, increasingly attracting visitors from the United States and investing in more expensive beach infrastructure. A pair of sun loungers now cost around 30 euros per day for two people. Travellers turning to Europe in response to rising long‑haul prices still had to reckon with higher costs than in previous seasons.
Will things normalise – or is this the new normal?
Germans undertook 114 million foreign trips in 2024, according to the Federal Statistical Office, a record and 15 percent more than before the pandemic. The appetite for travel remained strong, but the overall conditions had shifted. DRV spokesperson Torsten Schäfer said:
“Geopolitical conflicts can slow tourism in the short term, but in the long term they do not change Germans’ desire to travel.”
said Torsten Schäfer, DRV spokesperson.
Tourism researcher Julian Reif from Fachhochschule Heide offered a more nuanced view:
“It is not only about a short-term shock, but about a structural change in travel conditions.”
said Julian Reif, tourism researcher.
Prof. Zeiss pointed to airlines’ fuel strategies for clues about future pricing. Carriers had often secured their fuel needs well in advance at fixed prices through so‑called fuel hedging and were still drawing on these reserves. Once existing contracts expired and kerosene had to be purchased at current market rates, the full extent of price increases could show up in airfares only in autumn and winter.
What travellers should do now
Travellers planning a trip to Thailand were advised not to wait for fares to fall. Current airline hedge contracts still cushioned part of the cost increases, but this buffer was expected to erode by autumn. Those who were flexible on departure airport and willing to travel in the low season from May to October could still secure tickets at relatively acceptable prices.
People needing health insurance for Thailand were urged to check whether their policies covered cancellations or delays caused by geopolitical events, as not all products did. For long‑term residents in Thailand, the war in Iran initially changed little regarding entry or visa rules, but rising domestic prices for fuel and food were a tangible reality and likely to climb further over the coming months.
Residents who lived in Thailand and travelled regularly to Europe were advised to book return flights early while airlines’ fuel hedges still applied. The article stressed that the information reflected the situation as of April 2026 and that conditions in the Middle East, along with flight prices, route offerings and travel warnings, could change at short notice, making it essential to consult tour operators and the Foreign Office before booking.