BANGKOK, THAILAND – Thailand’s 8 February parliamentary election was set up as a duel between the reform‑oriented People’s Party and the conservative ruling Bhumjaithai Party, with Pheu Thai emerging in polls as a possible kingmaker for future coalitions.
Neck-and-neck contest and parallel referendum
Pollsters in recent surveys put the opposition People’s Party and its lead candidate Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut narrowly ahead of Bhumjaithai and its prime ministerial contender Anutin Charnvirakul. While the reformist party focused on institutional change and stronger political accountability, Bhumjaithai campaigned on national security and the conflict along the border with Cambodia. At the same time, voters decided in a referendum whether to draft a new constitution, making the ballot the most expensive nationwide vote in the country’s history.
Different strengths in constituencies and party list
Analysts stressed that the published opinion polls mainly reflected support in the nationwide party‑list system, where only 100 seats were allocated. In the decisive race for the 400 constituency mandates, several political scientists expected Bhumjaithai to overtake the People’s Party and finish with a lead of 10 to 20 seats. This split in strengths raised the prospect of complex coalition talks once the full 500‑member lower house was elected.
Pheu Thai positioned as potential kingmaker
The former governing party Pheu Thai, which had led two coalition governments after the 2023 election, ranked only third in current polls but was viewed by observers as a potential kingmaker. According to this assessment, Pheu Thai could underpin either a victory by Bhumjaithai or by the People’s Party by choosing to support or block the formation of a new government in each case. Experts saw a coalition of Bhumjaithai, Pheu Thai and Klatham as a preferred option if Anutin’s party finished first, arguing that these groups were politically easier to manage than the People’s Party and the Democrats.
Red lines over alleged “grey money” links
Both the People’s Party and the Democrats had previously declared they would not cooperate with Klatham. They justified this stance by pointing to accusations that Klatham had been linked to so‑called “grey money”. These publicly stated red lines further narrowed the range of viable coalition constellations after the vote.
Seat projections and coalition arithmetic
Political scientist Yuttaporn Issarachai of Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University projected 140 to 150 seats for Bhumjaithai, 120 to 130 for the People’s Party, 100 to 120 for Pheu Thai, 40 to 50 for Klatham and 20 to 25 for the Democrats. Similar estimates were presented by Suvicha Pouaree of the NIDA Poll Centre and Stithorn Thananithichot of Chulalongkorn University, who each saw Bhumjaithai slightly ahead of the People’s Party and Pheu Thai clearly in third place. These forecasts underlined how no single party was expected to come close to an absolute majority, making coalition building unavoidable.
Anutin’s path to the premiership
After the 2023 election, Bhumjaithai had won only 71 seats and placed third, but nevertheless secured the premiership in September when the previous Move Forward–Pheu Thai alliance failed to form a government. Lawmakers from the now‑leading opposition force, the People’s Party, voted for Anutin Charnvirakul as prime minister without joining his government. This followed a court decision that dissolved Move Forward and barred its leading figure, Pita Limjaroenrat, from political office for 10 years.
Technocrats in cabinet and growing support
In return for backing from the People’s Party, Bhumjaithai pledged to enable a constitutional amendment that would clear the way for an entirely new charter, while retaining key cabinet posts under its own control. Anutin appointed several recognised experts as ministers, including Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun, Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas. Their performance over the previous four months was assessed positively and significantly sharpened the party’s public profile.
Record-cost vote and turnout expectations
On election day, about 52.9 million eligible voters were called to choose 500 MPs and to decide whether a new constitution should be drafted. The Election Commission expected turnout to exceed 75 percent for the combined parliamentary and referendum vote. For the poll, in which each voter received three ballots—for party list, constituency candidate and referendum—the Election Commission EC budgeted total costs of 8.97 billion baht, making it the most expensive national election in Thailand’s history.
Debate over Thailand’s political direction
The contest was widely portrayed as a rare confrontation between two clearly opposed political camps. One side promised far‑reaching reforms, while the other emphasised stability and security, with a third party potentially deciding who would ultimately govern. Public commentary framed the choice as a test of whether Thailand was on the verge of real political change or a continuation of existing power structures.
“Two political camps are facing each other as rarely before. While some promise deep reforms, others rely on stability and security. At the same time, a third party could ultimately decide on the government. Is Thailand facing a real political upheaval – or will continuity prevail in the end?”
said ThaiPBS, in a commentary cited as the source of the analysis.