BANGKOK, Thailand – Thailand is facing an escalating climate crisis, with record heat, deadly storms, and a sinking capital.
Yesterday Hail, Today Heat – What Is Happening Now
On April 28, 2026, the Thai Meteorological Department issued a severe weather warning for Upper Thailand, forecasting summer storms, hail, strong gusts, and lightning from April 29 to May 1. Farmers were urged to secure fruit trees and protect livestock. This follows Bangkok’s hottest April ever recorded. In early April 2026, the Ministry of Digital officially confirmed that the heat index – combining temperature and humidity – reached 58.7 degrees Celsius in parts of the capital. The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) issued a “Dangerous” warning on April 7, with heat index values between 42 and 51.9°C and a risk of exceeding the 52°C “Very Dangerous” threshold.
Was Thailand Really Cooler in the Past? Yes.
NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies analyzed Bangkok climate data: in 1960 the city had 193 days per year with temperatures above 32°C; by 2018 that number had risen to 276 days. By 2100, NASA projects 297 to 344 such days annually, depending on emission scenarios. Thailand’s own weather agency recorded a 1°C increase in average annual temperature between 1981 and 2007. A separate study covering 1955 to 2009 found an increase of 0.95°C, higher than the global average of 0.69°C. For northern Thailand, data from 1970 to 2009 shows maximum, minimum, and average temperatures each rose by nearly 1°C over four decades.
El Niño 2026: What the Ministry of Agriculture Is Already Doing
Agriculture Minister Suriya Juangroongruangkit presented a national emergency plan in late April 2026, including reservoir management, cloud seeding, shifting to short-cycle water-efficient crops, and early warning systems. According to the Bangkok Post, rainfall in 2026 is expected to be about 18.6 percent lower than the previous year. Climate economist Dr. Witsanu Attavanich of Kasetsart University stated that Thailand is in the middle phase of a new El Niño cycle. Models from ECMWF, NOAA, and the WMO predict El Niño conditions starting in summer 2026 with 61 percent probability. Rainfall in the north and northeast is already about 10 percent below the seasonal norm.
Climate Change or Just Nature? Science Has a Clear Answer
El Niño has always existed, but the network World Weather Attribution – an international consortium of climate scientists – examined the extreme heatwaves of April 2023 in Thailand and Laos. They concluded that such an event would have been nearly impossible without human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. Statistically, an event of this intensity occurred about once in 200 years in the past; today it is a rare extreme, but with 2°C of global warming it will happen about every 20 years. Climate scientist Dr. Friederike Otto of the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, co-author of the study, said:
“Climate change dramatically increases the frequency and intensity of heatwaves – measurable, not theoretical.”
said Dr. Friederike Otto, climate scientist at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London.
21 Deaths – and the Real Number Is Higher
Thailand’s Department of Disease Control (DDC) officially recorded 21 heat-related deaths in 2025 – 18 men and 3 women aged 27 to 79. 67 percent of deaths occurred outdoors, 57 percent in April. The northeast was hardest hit. Health experts believe the actual number is significantly higher, as heart failure during extreme heat is often not classified as heat-related. The government warned as early as March 2026 that the heat index in northern, northeastern, and central Thailand would approach 52°C and beyond.
Bangkok Is Sinking While the Sea Level Rises
Bangkok sinks by up to two centimeters per year due to soft clay subsidence from decades of groundwater extraction. Parts of the city center are already below sea level. Meanwhile, the sea level in the Gulf of Thailand is rising by three to five millimeters per year – well above the global average. The World Bank estimates that 40 percent of the city area could be flooded during extreme rainfall by 2030. For Bangkok’s real estate market, location, floor level, and drainage systems are now critical considerations.
Rice, Sugar, Cassava: What’s Happening in the Fields
Thailand is one of the world’s largest rice exporters. Estimates from the EU climate research body and UN Environment Programme suggest rice production could fall by 10 to 13 percent by mid-century due to changing temperatures and precipitation alone. For sugarcane, declines of 25 to 35 percent are expected, and for cassava 15 to 21 percent. Under a high-emissions scenario, economic damage to the agricultural sector is projected at over 94 billion US dollars by 2050, based on IPCC scenarios.
And Thailand’s Climate Policy? Ambitious on Paper
At COP30 in Belém in November 2025, Thailand moved its net-zero target from 2065 to 2050. However, the Climate Action Tracker rates Thailand’s current climate policies as “critically insufficient” – if all countries followed this path, global warming would exceed 4°C. Thailand’s greenhouse gas emissions rose by 2.9 percent in 2024 compared to the previous year.
What Needs to Be Done Now
Thailand will not become uninhabitable, but those moving to Chiang Mai at age 55 should know that the April temperatures considered extreme in 2024 could be normal by 2035. Bangkok residents need to understand their neighborhood’s flood risk and building drainage systems. Farmers in the Isaan region must monitor water reserves. Whether one blames humans, the sun, or other factors, temperatures are rising, droughts are more frequent, and rainfall is increasingly unpredictable. Those who ignore this will pay a concrete price – in baht, not in theories.
Editorial Notes
Climate projections are based on scenarios and probabilities. The cited sources include NASA GISS, NOAA, ECMWF, WMO, World Weather Attribution, Thailand’s NDC 3.0 (UNFCCC November 2025), Climate Action Tracker, and Bangkok Post. The severe weather warning of April 28, 2026 was issued directly by the Thai Meteorological Department.