Thailand tourism struggles in 2025

BANGKOK, THAILAND – Thailand’s crucial tourism industry, long regarded as the nation’s economic lifeline contributing more than 10% of GDP, faced renewed headwinds in 2025 as international arrivals declined by 7.25% year-on-year by late October.

Tourism Recovery Falters

After a promising rebound in 2024 following the COVID-19 downturn, the country appeared set for continued growth. Yet by October 26, the Ministry of Tourism and Sports reported only 26.25 million international visitors, compared with 35.5 million for the entire previous year. Officials have now revised the full-year forecast to 33.4 million tourists, about 6% lower than last year’s total.

Tourist spending mirrored the decline. International visitors generated about 1.2 trillion baht in revenue so far, lagging behind 2024’s levels by a similar margin. Between January and September, earnings fell nearly 6% to 1.11 trillion baht. Domestic travel softened the blow, climbing 2.89% to 148.7 million trips worth 854 billion baht, yet local demand has not been enough to fill gaps left by foreign visitors.

Chinese Visitors Plummet

The sector’s biggest reversal came from China, traditionally Thailand’s largest source of tourists. Arrivals from the mainland dropped around 35% to just 3.7 million so far this year, compared with 6.7 million in 2024. Analysts attribute the slump mainly to safety concerns amplified by social media after incidents involving Chinese tourists earlier in the year. During China’s Golden Week holiday, arrivals sank 24% to about 200,000, cutting projected income to 9.1 billion baht, 17% below expectations.

Regional Competition and Economic Pressures

Thailand has also been squeezed by rising regional competition. Vietnam and Japan have captured a greater share of East Asian travel thanks to lower prices and improved connectivity. Japan alone welcomed about 3.1 million Chinese tourists in 2025, outpacing Thai numbers once again.

A stronger baht, up about 7% since early 2025, has made destinations such as Bangkok and Chiang Mai costlier for visitors from Europe and North America. Weak consumer spending in those markets has further limited per-visitor expenditure. Meanwhile, an early July border skirmish with Cambodia undermined confidence among ASEAN travelers, leading to an 8% decline in short-haul arrivals.

Mixed Signals Across Markets

Despite the slowdown, a few markets continued to expand. Malaysia maintained its role as the top source country with 3.8 million arrivals, rising 7% in late October. Russian tourism also showed momentum, with a 31% weekly increase to 38,749 visitors toward the end of the month. These modest gains, however, have not offset the steep fall from China and other long-haul origins.

Officials Aim for a Turnaround

Tourism Authority of Thailand Governor Thapanee Kiatphaibul projected cautious optimism that the upcoming 2026 Chinese New Year festivities and targeted marketing initiatives, including a campaign dubbed “Nihao Month,” could help revive the market. Nonetheless, economists and industry observers called for broader structural reforms to protect the sector from cyclical shocks.

They urged diversification away from an overreliance on beach destinations, reinforced traveler safety measures, and closer coordination on currency management.

“THAILAND’S TOURISM CAN NO LONGER DEPEND ON A SINGLE MARKET OR A WEAK BAHT TO STAY COMPETITIVE,”

one analyst warned, summarizing a sentiment increasingly shared across the sector.

As Thailand—once the world’s ninth-most visited country—navigated these setbacks, hoteliers and tour operators in Phuket, Pattaya, and other resort cities braced for a subdued high season. The coming months will reveal whether renewed campaigns and policy adjustments can sustain jobs and investment in a sector vital to the country’s broader recovery.