BANGKOK, Thailand – Thailand’s water authority sounds the alarm: an emerging El Niño could surpass the devastating 2015 drought. Dry periods threaten to stretch well into 2027. Fourteen state agencies were summoned to an emergency meeting.
Paitoon Kengkarnchang, deputy secretary-general of the Office of National Water Resources (ONWR), warns of a worsening situation. Current model calculations point to an El Niño event that could be more severe than the drought eleven years ago.
Drought could surpass 2015 crisis
The authority expects long-lasting dry periods. The effects of the weather phenomenon are expected to remain noticeable until mid-2027.
ONWR immediately convened a meeting with key government agencies. Participants included the Thai Meteorological Department, the Royal Irrigation Department, the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department, and the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration.
14 agencies hold crisis meeting
Paitoon led the meeting and issued a clear directive: obstacles along waterways must be removed immediately. Construction projects are blocking natural drainage channels in many places, causing local flooding despite the overall rainfall deficit.
Barriers along waterways must be removed immediately. Construction projects are blocking natural drainage channels.
said Paitoon Kengkarnchang, deputy secretary-general of ONWR.
El Niño to intensify sharply from October
The Thai Meteorological Department predicts a strengthening of El Niño conditions between October and December 2026. There is a high probability of a very strong event.
Upper Thailand carries the highest risk of a massive rainfall disruption. Even after the phenomenon subsides, drought will keep a firm grip on the country.
Construction projects block drainage channels
Nationwide cumulative rainfall is currently ten percent below average. Yet regional flooding occurs because structures disrupt natural water flow.
Authorities are now ordered to clear these blockages immediately. ONWR pushes for swift action to limit damage during the remaining rainy season.
Chao Phraya dams offer buffer
Despite declining inflows into reservoirs, ONWR gives cautious all-clear for the Chao Phraya basin. Reserves at the major dams are at a reassuring level thanks to forward-looking planning in the 2025 rainy season.
For the four main reservoirs — Bhumibol, Sirikit, Kwae Noi Bamrung Dan, and Pasak Jolasid — usable reserves of 12,105 million cubic metres are expected as of November 1, 2026. That is less than the 17,245 million cubic metres from November 2025, but miles above the 4,247 million cubic metres at the peak of the 2015 crisis.
Farmers urged to adjust planting plans
Paitoon urges caution despite the filled storage. Areas outside formal irrigation networks remain extremely vulnerable to the looming drought.
ONWR calls on farmers to urgently reconsider their planting plans and follow authority directives. The private sector and the public must also implement strict water-saving measures to minimise crop damage.