BANGKOK, THAILAND – Thailand’s tourism and retail sectors counted on Chinese New Year 2026 to drive a strong rebound in travel and consumer spending across the country.
Tourism agency projects 42.23 billion baht windfall
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) forecast total revenue of 42.23 billion baht from the festival period between 13 and 22 February 2026, about 13 percent more than a year earlier. The holiday, widely seen in East Asia as a time for family reunions and high spending, has traditionally been a peak season for trade, services and tourism in Thailand’s large Thai‑Chinese communities.
Foreign arrivals to lead growth
TAT governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool said Thailand expected 1.25 million foreign visitors during the period, a 10 percent increase on 2025. This segment was projected to generate 35.48 billion baht, up 14 percent from 31.16 billion baht in the previous year.
In the domestic market, the agency anticipated 2.3 million local trips, 3 percent more than in 2025, bringing in 6.75 billion baht. That would mark a 4 percent rise from 6.255 billion baht a year earlier.
Chinese travellers seen as key driver
Thapanee described the momentum around the festival in Thailand and abroad as an encouraging sign for the sector’s recovery.
“The TAT was ready in 2026 to generate additional revenue with measures and promotions and to channel money into the regions,”
said Thapanee Kiatphaibool, TAT governor.
Working with the Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA), the authority reported very strong advance bookings for the holiday. It cited trends around celebrities and artists, joint promotions with airlines and the “Thailand Summer Blast” campaign, which supported charter flights from Chinese tier‑2 and tier‑3 cities to Thailand.
Japan travel disruption opens door for Thailand
The TAT also saw new opportunities in the situation between China and Japan. Chinese authorities cancelled 49 scheduled flight routes to Japan and warned citizens to avoid travelling there, especially over the New Year period.
Data from the platform Flight Master showed the cancellation rate on China–Japan routes rose to 47.2 percent in January. By 26 January, flights on 49 routes in February had already been dropped, including 113 services between Beijing Daxing and Kansai (Osaka) and 13 flights between Shenzhen Bao’an and New Chitose (Hokkaido).
Several major Chinese airlines, including Air China, China Eastern and China Southern, extended flexible rebooking and refund policies for Japan trips until 24 October 2026, beyond the original end date of 28 March 2026. For Thailand, this created additional room to attract Chinese visitors.
Japan sees setback but remains strong market
According to the Japan National Tourism Organisation (JNTO), the number of Chinese visitors to Japan fell to 330,000 in December 2025, a 45 percent drop from December 2024. For full‑year 2025, however, Japan still welcomed 9.09 million Chinese tourists, 30.3 percent more than in the previous year.
China was Japan’s second‑largest source market after South Korea, which recorded 9.46 million visitors. It was followed by Taiwan with 6.76 million, the United States with 3.3 million, Hong Kong with 2.51 million and Thailand with 1.23 million.
Mixed tourism results in 2025
Thailand’s Ministry of Tourism reported 2.63 million foreign visitors between 1 and 25 January 2026, down 9 percent year‑on‑year. The main source markets were China (301,000), Malaysia (236,000), Russia (223,000), India (189,000) and South Korea (136,000).
For 2025 as a whole, Thailand recorded 32.97 million international arrivals, 7.23 percent fewer than in 2024, while foreign tourism revenue reached 1.530 trillion baht, a 4.71 percent decline. Malaysia was the largest market with 4.52 million visitors, just ahead of China with 4.47 million, followed by India (2.48 million), Russia (1.89 million) and South Korea (1.55 million).
Ambitious 2026 tourism targets
For 2026, the TAT set a goal of 3 trillion baht in total tourism income, an 11 percent increase over 2025. The plan envisaged 36.7 million foreign visitors, also up 11 percent, contributing 2 trillion baht.
Domestic trips were targeted to rise to 210 million, generating 1 trillion baht in revenue. In 2025, Thailand’s tourism balance stood at 2.7 trillion baht, with 32.97 million overseas arrivals and 202 million domestic trips.
Retail giants launch Fire Horse year campaign
Retailers prepared in parallel for a surge in holiday spending. Central Pattana, operator of Central shopping centres, and Central Retail allocated a combined budget of 600 million baht for the “The Great Chinese New Year 2026” campaign under the hashtag #LuckyFireHorseAtCentral.
The promotion was scheduled from 30 January to 1 March in more than 3,000 Central Retail outlets and at Esplanade Ratchada, aiming to stimulate consumption and tourism in the first quarter through events and special offers for different generations. The operators expected an increase in visitor numbers of 25 to 30 percent.
Shopping centres as ‘complete destinations’
Central’s malls were positioned as “Complete Destinations” that combine shopping, prayer, dining and travel in one place. Key “tourist malls” for Chinese guests included CentralWorld, Central Park, Central Village Outlet, Rama 9, as well as branches in Phuket, Pattaya, Chiang Mai and Chiang Mai Airport.
Central partnered with BEAUTRIUM to run campaigns on the lifestyle platform Xiaohongshu and with various e‑wallets. Piyawan Leelasompop, Senior Executive Vice President Marketing at Central Retail, underlined the importance of the festival for first‑quarter economic performance.
Holiday spending seen boosting GDP
Data from the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) indicated more than 51 billion baht in circulating funds during the 2025 New Year period, up 4.5 percent and the highest level in five years.
“In line with the positive signals, with the TAT targeting 6.7 million Chinese tourists, we were convinced that Chinese New Year was a central engine for strong GDP growth in the first quarter,”
said Piyawan Leelasompop, Senior Executive Vice President Marketing at Central Retail.
Central and Central Pattana relied on what they called the “Power of Ecosystem” to link offline and online offerings across 3,000 locations in 62 provinces, from department stores to sports and electronics outlets and wholesale and DIY stores. The strategy was based on a “3C” model: CELEBRATE – CHANGE – CHANCE.
Fire Horse theme shapes in‑store experience
Ravisra Chirathivat, Managing Director Marketing of the Central Department Store Group, described the festival as culturally and economically significant. The in‑store experience worlds were designed around the “Year of the Fire Horse” motif.
“The highlight this year was the check‑in landmark around the Fire Horse at Central Chidlom. It stood for strength, freedom, determination and elegance and created an atmosphere that invited guests to capture and share special moments,”
said Ravisra Chirathivat, Managing Director Marketing of Central Department Store Group.