BANGKOK, THAILAND – Independent analyst Ambros Schmidt offers insights into current shifts in international real estate markets and their impact on Thailand.
Ambros Schmidt, an independent analyst with a decade of experience in international property markets, has been living in Roi Et, Isaan, since late 2025. Wochenblitz interviewed him regarding current shifts, including Pattaya, Dubai, Marbella, Thai tax law, and concrete steps expatriates with Thai property should take.
The numbers paint a clear picture: KKP Research and SCB EIC predict 2026 will see Thailand’s weakest property market in eight years. Simultaneously, the Costa del Sol is booming, and Dubai investors are seeking new locations after the Iran crisis. Schmidt explains the underlying reasons and the limits of his analysis.
Pattaya 2026: What the Numbers Really Mean
Wochenblitz: Mr. Schmidt, KKP Research forecasts only 290,000 property transfers nationwide for 2026 – the lowest level in eight years. At the same time, the Bangkok Post reports ‘House sales to fall as war hits demand.’ How do you experience this on the ground in Pattaya?
schmidt:
“Anyone wanting to sell a condo in Pattaya today needs patience and nerves. Sales times of over twelve months in the mass-market segment are no longer an exception – they are the rule. Those who need liquidity quickly accept discounts of 15 to 20 percent on the list price. In Jomtien, the median is around 56,000 baht per square meter, but the actual closing rarely happens at this price.”
said Ambros Schmidt, property analyst.
In Pattaya, selling a condominium has become a lengthy process, with sales taking over a year. Many sellers are forced to accept significant price reductions of 15 to 20 percent to achieve liquidity. The median price per square meter in Jomtien, while reported, is often not achieved in actual transactions.
Chonburi is Losing, Bangkok is Gaining – Why This Divergence?
Wochenblitz: KKP names a 15 percent drop in transfers for Chonburi – but Bangkok is simultaneously gaining nine percent, and Hua Hin even 66 percent. Surat Thani is said to have grown by 220 percent. How do you explain this divergence?
schmidt:
“The regional differences are real, but they must be put into perspective. Bangkok benefits from domestic demand and infrastructure investments along new subway lines. Hua Hin attracts second-home buyers from Bangkok. Regarding the 220 percent leap in Surat Thani, I must be honest: that is primarily a base effect. The absolute number of transfers there was so low beforehand that even small growth in the luxury villa segment in Bophut and Chaweng Noi looks huge percentage-wise. I recommend reading this value in context, not as a real boom.”
said Ambros Schmidt, property analyst.
While Chonburi anticipates a 15 percent decline in property transfers, areas like Bangkok and Hua Hin have seen increases. Schmidt cautions that the significant percentage growth reported for Surat Thani is a statistical anomaly due to a very low previous base. He emphasizes viewing this figure within its proper context rather than as a genuine market surge.
What About the Bar and Catering Market in Pattaya?
Wochenblitz: In your first email, you also mentioned bars and restaurants desperately seeking buyers. On what basis – do you have official figures for this?
schmidt:
“I must be transparent about this: here, I am relying on personal observations in Walking Street and Soi Buakhao, as well as informal offers in local Facebook groups. I have not seen official business deregistration figures from the Pattaya City Hall. It is an impression, not a data point. Anyone who wants to read this as hard evidence is mistaken – it is market sentiment that aligns with other signals but cannot stand alone.”
said Ambros Schmidt, property analyst.
Schmidt states that his observations regarding bars and restaurants in Pattaya actively seeking buyers are based on personal observations and informal offers, not official data. He clarifies that this is a market sentiment rather than a concrete statistical finding.
Dubai February 2026: How Quickly Does a Market Turn?
Wochenblitz: You name the escalation in the Iran conflict from February 2026 as a decisive external trigger. How quickly was this effect measurable in the Dubai real estate market?
schmidt:
“Appallingly quickly. After the drone attacks and airport closures, real estate transactions in Dubai collapsed by 25 percent within two weeks. The Dubai Financial Market Real Estate Index temporarily lost 20 percent. This is not a slow change in sentiment – it is a shock event that immediately sets capital in motion. Anyone invested in Dubai real estate decided within weeks that they needed alternatives.”
said Ambros Schmidt, property analyst.
The escalation of the Iran conflict in February 2026 had a rapid and dramatic impact on the Dubai real estate market. Within two weeks, transactions plummeted by 25 percent, and a key real estate index saw a 20 percent decline, illustrating the immediate effect of a shock event on capital flow.
Which Investors Are Leaving Dubai – And Where Are They Going?
Wochenblitz: Can you describe who these investors are – nationality, wealth level, profile?
schmidt:
“From my observation, these are primarily German business people, tech entrepreneurs, and Eastern European investors seeking EU stability. Agencies like DM Properties Marbella, a Knight Frank partner, have reported a significant increase in inquiries from the Middle East since Q1 2026. These are people primarily seeking legal certainty and political stability – and who are willing to pay higher entry prices in the EU for it.”
said Ambros Schmidt, property analyst.
Investors exiting Dubai, according to Schmidt’s observations, are predominantly German business people, tech entrepreneurs, and Eastern European investors. They are actively seeking the legal certainty and political stability offered by the European Union, even if it means higher investment costs.
Thailand as a Layover, Not a Destination
Wochenblitz: Is Thailand even a consideration for these Dubai investors – or are they moving directly to Europe?
schmidt:
“Thailand briefly appears on the radar – but quickly disappears again. Some initially came here, used the 60- or 90-day visa as an interim stop, and then left without establishing a long-term perspective. For them, Thailand was a layover, not a destination. Visa bureaucracy, limited foreign ownership rights, and tax uncertainty combine to deter investors who have just left an uncertain situation and do not want to enter a new one.”
said Ambros Schmidt, property analyst.
Thailand is often only a temporary stop for investors leaving Dubai, serving as a layover rather than a final destination. Factors such as visa bureaucracy, restricted foreign ownership, and tax uncertainties are deterring them from establishing a long-term presence.
Why Not Bali Instead of Marbella?
Wochenblitz: Many would argue that Bali is closer, cheaper, and culturally closer to Thailand for Dubai refugees. Why does capital end up in Marbella after all?
schmidt:
“The answer lies in ownership rights. Foreigners cannot acquire freehold ownership in Bali – they are reliant on leasehold structures, which are significantly more legally uncertain. Those who have just fled from Dubai because political uncertainty became too much will not voluntarily enter a leasehold structure on an Indonesian island. Marbella offers enforceable EU property law. That is the decisive factor for capital allocators – not cost of living or flight time.”
said Ambros Schmidt, property analyst.
The primary reason capital is flowing to Marbella over destinations like Bali is the assurance of enforceable EU property law offering freehold ownership. Investors seeking stability after leaving volatile markets prioritize legal security over factors like cost of living or proximity.
Marbella is Booming – But How Reliable Are the Numbers?
Wochenblitz: The numbers for the Costa del Sol sound impressive – 37,800 transactions in Malaga in 2024, 39 percent foreign share, Marbella at 5,400 euros per square meter. But are these transactions or just inquiries?
schmidt:
“That is an important question, and I want to answer honestly: the reports from DM Properties, Costas & Casas, and Winkworth Spain are predominantly inquiries and viewings, not completed transactions. The transaction numbers for Malaga from 2024 are real and verifiable – but the Dubai exit effect on actual closings in Marbella cannot yet be cleanly measured in volumes as of today. This must remain transparent in the article.”
said Ambros Schmidt, property analyst.
While the Costa del Sol, particularly Marbella, shows impressive figures, Schmidt clarifies that many reported numbers represent inquiries and viewings, not necessarily completed transactions. The verifiable transaction data for Malaga in 2024 is acknowledged, but the precise impact of the Dubai exodus on actual Marbella sales volumes remains difficult to quantify at present.
Thai Tax Law: What Many Misunderstand
Wochenblitz: In your initial assessment, you described the new Thai tax on foreign income as a clear dealbreaker. We see this more nuanced – Por. 162/2566 protects income earned before 2024. Did you formulate that too broadly?
schmidt:
“Yes, I admit that. I presented Por. 161/2566 as absolute. Por. 162/2566 is crucial: income earned before January 1, 2024, remains tax-free – even if it is transferred to Thailand afterwards. The date of the notarized contract is decisive, not the date of the transfer. Whoever sold their house in Germany in 2023 and transferred the proceeds to Thailand in 2024 pays no taxes there. For existing holders with correct documentation, the tax is manageable.”
said Ambros Schmidt, property analyst.
Schmidt concedes that his initial assessment of the new Thai tax on foreign income was too broad. He clarifies that Por. 162/2566 is key, meaning income earned before January 1, 2024, remains tax-free in Thailand, regardless of when it is transferred. The critical date for tax exemption is the notarization date of the contract, not the transfer date.
What Applies to Capital Generated After 2024?
Wochenblitz: But for those who sell property or generate capital from 2024 onwards – is the tax situation indeed a problem for them?
schmidt:
“Yes, for new capital from 2024 onwards, the tax situation remains a significant factor that should not be ignored. Anyone selling in Germany in 2024 or later and wanting to transfer the proceeds to Thailand must clarify this beforehand with an authorized tax advisor – preferably one who knows both German and Thai law. Mahanakorn Partners also recommends keeping all relevant documents from December 31, 2023, on file to cleanly document pre-2024 income.”
said Ambros Schmidt, property analyst.
For capital generated or property sales occurring from 2024 onwards, the new tax law presents a significant challenge. Investors seeking to transfer these funds to Thailand are advised to consult with tax advisors knowledgeable in both German and Thai legislation. Maintaining comprehensive documentation of income earned before December 31, 2023, is crucial for beneficiaries.
The Planned Two-Year Relief – Is It Coming?
Wochenblitz: There are reports of planned relief whereby income earned in the year of origin plus the following year would remain tax-free. Are you following this – and how realistic is it?
schmidt:
“I am following it. The relief is politically probable and would simplify many things – but as of June 2026, it is not in the Royal Gazette, so it is not applicable law. Due to the current parliamentary situation, a reliable timeline is difficult to name. Those planning now should not wait for something that may or may not come. The decision must be made based on current law.”
said Ambros Schmidt, property analyst.
While a planned two-year tax relief for income earned in the year of origin and the subsequent year is being monitored, it is not yet enacted law as of June 2026. Due to parliamentary circumstances, a definitive timeline for its implementation is uncertain, and current planning should proceed based on existing legislation.
Which Regions in Thailand Are Still Resilient?
Wochenblitz: Not all of Thailand is in crisis. Where do you see stable or growing markets – and why?
schmidt:
“Phuket is the clearest counter-example to Pattaya. The luxury segment there is growing, foreign buyers are active, and international schools drive real demand for long-term residency. Koh Samui is also holding up – a smaller market, but with a stable buyer profile. Hua Hin benefits from its proximity to Bangkok and domestic demand. And selective locations in Bangkok itself, especially along new train lines, are interesting for long-term investors with a five-to-ten-year horizon.”
said Ambros Schmidt, property analyst.
Phuket stands out as a resilient market, experiencing growth in its luxury segment driven by foreign buyers and demand for long-term residency fueled by international schools. Koh Samui maintains stability, while Hua Hin benefits from Bangkok’s proximity and domestic purchasing power. Select areas in Bangkok, particularly those near new transit lines, are also considered attractive for long-term investors.
Hold, Sell, or Buy More – Your Advice to Expats
Wochenblitz: Let’s get to the practical question that interests our readers most. A 60-year-old expatriate, Pattaya condo, 200,000 Euros in savings. What is your concrete advice – hold, sell, or buy more at the reduced prices?
schmidt:
“Hold and selectively diversify. Selling in the current weakest market in eight years would be a bad time. The sideways movement in the mass market is likely to continue until the end of 2027, possibly until mid-2028 – those who sell now realize the loss. Those who have time should use it and wait. The 200,000 Euros in savings, on the other hand, should be more broadly spread, away from a single asset class in one market. A lump-sum risk in Thai real estate is not a conservative position in this environment, but a risky one.”
said Ambros Schmidt, property analyst.
For expatriates with a Pattaya condominium and savings, Schmidt advises holding onto their property in the current weak market, as selling now would mean realizing a loss. He anticipates stability returning by late 2027 or mid-2028. The 200,000 Euros savings should be diversified across different asset classes to mitigate the risk of concentrating investments solely in Thai real estate.
What Do You Expect for Pattaya Until 2028?
Wochenblitz: Is there also a scenario in which Pattaya recovers faster – for example, if the Dubai conflict resolves or new infrastructure drives demand?
schmidt:
“A peace settlement in the Middle East would immediately draw Dubai capital back there – that would not be an advantage for Pattaya, but rather neutral. What would truly help Pattaya is a recovery of domestic purchasing power and a solution to the household debt problem. The EEC corridor along the Eastern Seaboard could build demand in Chonburi in the medium term – but that is a five-to-eight-year project, not a short-term impulse. Those betting on a quick recovery are betting on a lot.”
said Ambros Schmidt, property analyst.
A quick recovery for Pattaya is unlikely without a significant increase in domestic purchasing power and a resolution to household debt issues. While the EEC corridor could stimulate demand in the medium term, this is a five-to-eight-year project. A peace settlement in the Middle East would likely redirect capital away from Pattaya, not towards it.
Editorial note: This article reflects the personal assessment of Ambros Schmidt and does not replace individual tax or investment advice. Tax information refers to the status as of June 2026 and may change. Exchange rate information are approximations.