BANGKOK, THAILAND – Thailand’s tourism industry came under growing pressure in 2025 from geopolitical conflicts and bilateral tensions that directly affected several key source markets.
Middle East conflict undermined momentum
Tourism and Sports Minister Sorawong Thienthong reported that the conflict between Israel and Iran had escalated into direct hostilities on 13 June 2025, raising fears in Middle Eastern and Western countries of a possible regional war that could undermine global economic stability and Thailand’s prospects. The foreign market analysis division closely monitored developments and expected a marked impact on arrivals from Israel, forecasting significant losses from late June into the third quarter of 2025, with a potential 29% drop in that quarter. The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) issued an initial impact assessment based on two scenarios and, for a prolonged confrontation without a negotiated ceasefire, also anticipated a contraction in the third quarter.
Despite these expected declines, authorities did not believe the annual growth rate for Israeli visitors would fall below 2024 levels, citing a strong 76% increase in Israeli arrivals in the first five months of 2025. According to TAT, the crisis was expected mainly to slow the pace of growth rather than push total annual numbers into negative territory compared with the previous year.
Iran, Cambodia and China added further strain
The number of Iranian visitors remained relatively stable but had already begun to edge down, with 28,259 Iranians travelling to Thailand from January to May 2025, compared with 28,786 in the same period a year earlier and 64,962 for all of 2024. Iranian carrier Mahan Air had operated six weekly direct flights to Bangkok and Phuket, but these were due to end in June 2025, costing about 1,800 seats per week because of airspace closures. Drawing on 2018 data, when US sanctions on Iran triggered an immediate 60% plunge in Iranian arrivals, Thai officials expected the number of Iranian tourists to fall by up to 60% from July to December 2025 due to war risks and the loss of direct flights.
Parallel to developments in the Middle East, border tourism with Cambodia came under pressure after opening hours at several checkpoints were adjusted from 7 June, leading to a 43% week-on-week drop in average daily tourist numbers there. Domestic demand was said to have remained largely stable, but the TAT’s Northeastern regional office and its Ho Chi Minh City office continued to monitor the situation at the border and in the wider region, as arrivals from Cambodia between January and May 2025 totaled 197,658, down 14% year on year.
Warning from Phnom Penh and negative reports in China
Additional strain came from an official advisory issued in Phnom Penh, where Cambodian media reported that the foreign ministry on 22 June had urged its citizens to “avoid non-essential travel to Thailand” and to “exercise caution.”
“Avoid non-essential travel to Thailand” and “exercise caution.”
said the Cambodian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which cited the tense state of relations between Cambodia and Thailand, directly affecting cross-border travel and complicating efforts to stabilise visitor numbers from the neighbouring country.
At the same time, Thailand’s tourism industry faced difficulties in the crucial Chinese market, as authorities stated that negative media reports in China about fraud and scam operations had led to a decline in Chinese visitors. Officials relied on continuous monitoring and scenario analysis in an effort to limit the impact of the conflict between Israel and Iran, potential declines in Iranian tourists, tensions with Cambodia and negative Chinese coverage, and to meet annual tourism targets despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.