BANGKOK, THAILAND – Former commerce ministry official Palat Sirikunphisut warned that Thailand could face a new wave of inflation and called for a shift from cash handouts to productivity-driven policies.
Warning of a new inflation round
On 16 April 2026, Palat Sirikunphisut, former secretary to the commerce minister and past candidate in Bangkok Constituency 1 for the Ruam Thai Sang Chart Party, commented on Thailand’s economic situation.
He said the trigger for his warning was the situation in the Middle East, which in his view could reignite inflation and make price increases for goods and services more likely.
Cost of living rising noticeably
Palat stated that many people were already feeling significantly higher living costs.
He added that geopolitical uncertainty further increased the risk of rising prices, which could intensify pressure on households and weaken consumption.
Criticism of one-sided monetary policy
According to Palat, political parties had often placed primary responsibility on the Bank of Thailand (BoT) to tackle expensive living costs through monetary policy and control of the money supply.
He considered this insufficient and argued that the central bank could not combat inflation on its own as long as structural problems in the economic system remained in place.
Turning away from demand drive: no more cash injections
The former official urged the government to shift its guidelines from a demand-driven approach that stimulates consumption towards a supply-side strategy focused on higher production and efficiency.
Previous measures such as injecting additional funds into the system might help in the short term, he said, but they were not sustainable and could contribute to persistent inflationary pressure over the long run.
Subsidies and side effects for prices and tourism
Palat pointed out that state support aimed at lowering specific living costs could provide relief but at the same time had encouraged domestic price increases.
This, he warned, could undermine the competitiveness of tourism. He referred to concerns voiced by travellers from China and Japan about rising expenses in Thailand, including comments that they did
“do not want to come to Thailand anymore.”
said Palat, former commerce ministry secretary.
Productivity as key – especially in agriculture and services
As a central solution, Palat called for active “productivity management” in production and services, with a particular focus on agriculture.
Higher efficiency should help lower the cost base and thereby curb inflation in everyday goods over the long term, instead of merely treating symptoms through consumption programmes.
China as comparison: wages up, prices more stable
Palat cited China as a case study. In recent years, incomes there had risen, and new labour-market entrants in some cities were starting at around 6,000 to 8,000 yuan or more.
By contrast, he said Thailand had long been stuck in the range of 15,000 to 20,000 baht, while in China product prices had in some cases fallen or at least not increased at the same rate as wages, supporting purchasing power.
Taxi example: competition, energy prices and EVs
As another example, Palat described taxi rides in China as cheaper than in Thailand, partly due to lower vehicle and energy costs.
He said the stronger use of electric cars and intense competition had led to a large supply of taxis, so that passengers in cities could often hail a car within three minutes.
Technology in agriculture and efficiency in industry
In agriculture, China had increased productivity through technology, reduced labour and at the same time boosted output, Palat observed, also pointing to developments in organic farming.
In industry, he said China emphasised “Productivity & Efficiency” as well as infrastructure and an economic ecosystem that enabled economies of scale and synergies, helping to keep prices stable while still allowing profits.
Appeal to Thai authorities and BOI
Palat argued that Thailand needed to accelerate a similar economic restructuring, particularly via the responsible economic agencies and the Board of Investment (BOI), in order to raise national productivity.
This, he said, should help reduce the burden of rising living costs on the population in the long term and make the economy more resilient to future inflation shocks.