BANGKOK, THAILAND – Former minister Sudarat Keyuraphan warned that Thailand faced a “real economic tsunami” that could hit harder than Covid-19 or the 1997 Asian financial crisis and urged the government to prepare for a worst-case scenario.
Sudarat sounds alarm over global shock
In a Facebook post dated 10 April 2026, Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan wrote that a global shock was imminent and that Thailand had to brace for a major worldwide crisis. She argued that the coming downturn would be significantly more severe than previous shocks.
According to her, if the country was poorly prepared, the crisis could devastate the economy and businesses. She warned that it could, in her words, level them to the ground.
A “prolonged, contradictory and destructive” war
Sudarat described the conflict driving the shock as “prolonged”, even if temporary ceasefires were agreed to allow talks. She pointed to fragile negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan and highlighted an ongoing risk of retaliatory terror as a consequence of the escalation.
With “contradictory”, she said the war had, in her view, torn up international rules and long-standing guardrails. That made the situation hard to predict and added uncertainty for markets, supply chains and investment.
She also called the conflict “destructive” because key energy infrastructure had been damaged. Some of these structures could require three to five years to repair, she warned.
Energy shock as first “tsunami wave”
Although Thailand was far from the battlefield, Sudarat said the country would feel the impact through energy prices and availability, as well as the global economic outlook. The first “tsunami wave” she identified was a price crisis in oil and gas.
She said Thailand was particularly exposed because it imported more energy from the Persian Gulf than some neighbouring countries. Current high prices were, in her view, not yet the full extent of the problem.
Sudarat warned that the situation could worsen after Songkran or within the next month. She stressed that the real impact had not yet been fully reflected in domestic prices.
Oil price impact on growth and inflation
In her post, Sudarat cited specific figures for the impact of oil prices on the economy. She said that a one-baht increase in the oil price could cut Thailand’s GDP by 0.04%.
At the same time, she said such a rise could add 0.32% to inflation. Rising energy costs would therefore not only squeeze households but also slow overall economic momentum.
“If the oil price rises by 1 baht, it can reduce Thailand’s GDP by 0.04% and increase inflation by 0.32%.”
said Sudarat Keyuraphan, former minister.
Second wave: shortages in energy and key inputs
As a second wave, she outlined the risk of shortages in energy and petrochemical products even if a ceasefire was reached. The reason, she argued, was the heavy damage to infrastructure.
She also warned of potential fertilizer shortages, with consequences for food security and farmers’ incomes. Shortfalls in intermediate goods such as plastic pellets could emerge, extending to risks for some medicines.
“Even if there is a ceasefire, the severe damage to energy structures can cause shortages of energy, fertilizers and petrochemical products.”
said Sudarat, calling for urgent planning.
Call for worst-case planning and transparency
Sudarat said the scale of the threat meant the government could not act lightly. She insisted that authorities should explicitly base their approach on a worst-case scenario.
She called for short-, medium- and long-term plans to be drawn up. The public had to be clearly informed so that the country could overcome the crisis together, she added.
Short-term: price reform and targeted relief
Sudarat expressed support for the announced reform of the energy price structure but demanded determined implementation. She argued that the era of cheap energy might be over.
Targeted assistance was, in her view, appropriate, but it had to be broad-based, rapid and sufficient. Only then could it truly keep affected people afloat.
“Targeted help is good, but it must reach people everywhere, be fast and be enough for them to stay above water.”
said Sudarat, urging decisive relief measures.
State in crisis mode and spending cuts
A central element of her proposal was crisis management through the state budget. She said the government had to save “extremely” and cut non-essential spending in all ministries.
As an example, she cited large construction projects and road budgets, which she said amounted to almost 200 billion baht this year. She called for these funds to be redirected to citizens, farmers and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
“The state must go into crisis mode, cut non-urgent projects and use the budget to support people, farmers and SMEs.”
said Sudarat, referring to major construction and road plans.
Temporary fuel tax cut as price brake
In addition, Sudarat proposed suspending the excise tax on oil temporarily to lower pump prices. This, she argued, would help cushion the impact of surging fuel costs.
She pointed to examples of similar steps taken in Japan, South Korea, Australia, India and Vietnam. These measures, she suggested, showed that temporary tax relief on fuel was a realistic option.
Energy transition for medium and long term
For the medium and long term, Sudarat called for a fundamental restructuring of the energy system. The goal should be to reduce dependence on fossil fuels as much as possible.
Households, farmers and SMEs should gain easier and cheaper access to solar power systems, she said. They should also be able to sell electricity back to the state.
“We must restructure the energy system so that we depend on fossil energy as little as possible and let households, farmers and SMEs sell solar power back to the state.”
said Sudarat, outlining her long-term vision.
Transport shift and electric vehicles
Sudarat urged a shift in transport towards rail and waterways to improve energy efficiency and supply security. This would reduce the reliance on imported fuel, she argued.
She also called for subsidies to support the switch of commercial vehicles and buses to electric vehicles (EVs). At the same time, she said EV production in Thailand should be expanded.
“Calm world is over”: security as key factor
Sudarat wrote that the period of global calm had ended and that the world would be marked by volatility and uncertainty. In this environment, she said, security would become a key factor in many dimensions.
She cited security in protection, energy, food, environment and technology as decisive. Those who understood the situation and acted quickly could survive and seize opportunities, she concluded.
“The calm world is over – from now on, volatility and uncertainty will dominate, and security in energy, food and technology will decide who survives and finds opportunities.”
said Sudarat, urging Thailand to act without delay.