BANGKOK, THAILAND – Fears of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East have stirred anxiety in Thailand over rising fuel costs and disrupted supply chains, triggering runs on petrol stations and warnings of possible rationing.
Hormuz risk puts Thai fuel security in focus
Tensions between the United States, Israel and Iran were seen as the trigger for Thailand’s current unease, as any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz was viewed as an immediate threat to global oil flows and prices.
Although Thailand held strategic reserves, politicians and businesses warned that a drawn-out conflict could strain domestic logistics and push costs higher across the country.
Uneven reserves in the South raise alarm
Chaiyong Maneerungsakul, a senator from Songkhla and spokesman for the Senate Committee on Military and State Security, outlined a scenario in which distribution, rather than crude supply, became the bottleneck, particularly in the South.
He said Thailand had about 60 days of oil reserves in total, but depots in the South, such as in Surat Thani and Songkhla, could keep the region stable for only around 15 days if distribution was restricted.
Rationing scenario: less fuel, shorter hours
Chaiyong described possible measures if the situation dragged on, saying deliveries to petrol stations could be cut from the usual 60,000 litres per shipment to 30,000 litres.
Sales might be limited to fuelling vehicles directly, while stockpiling in drums or tanks could be banned, and opening hours could be reduced from 6 a.m.–10 p.m. to early closures as soon as 6 p.m.
Black market fears and “system-free” fuel
The senator warned that tight allocations could revive the illegal fuel trade, arguing that large oil companies would first supply their own branded stations, leaving independent dealers and intermediaries behind.
From the transport sector in the South, it was reported that “system-free” diesel and petrol were already at about 25 baht per litre, up from the usual 20 to 21 baht, adding pressure on businesses and consumers.
Biodiesel push from palm oil sector
Tossapol Kwanrod, president of the Rubber and Palm Oil Farmer Networks of Thailand, called for a rapid ramp-up in biodiesel production to build domestic reserves in case of real shortages.
He noted that Thailand had previously been able to supply blends up to B100 before stricter emission standards pushed the market back to B7, and argued that even if palm oil could not meet all demand, higher biodiesel use would strengthen long-term supply security.
Rising diesel costs squeeze transport margins
In the Northeast, Chaiwat Wongbenjarat, managing director of Nakhonchai 21 Co and deputy managing director of Nakhonchai Tour Co, said diesel prices had risen by 4 to 5 baht per litre in recent days, while fuel accounted for 35 to 40 percent of operating costs.
He put the resulting cost increase at around 10 percent and indicated that, if prices climbed further, operators could apply to the Department of Land Transport to reduce services, while also raising the possibility of targeted state support such as price subsidies or lower import duties on spare parts.
Chiang Mai queues and temporary shortages
In Chiang Mai, long lines formed at petrol stations early on 5 March as many motorists filled up in advance, even though Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said the Energy Ministry was monitoring the situation.
Several stations reported temporary shortages of specific products, especially E85 and E91 (Gasohol 91), while Governor Nirat Pongsitthaworn ordered inspections against hoarding and opportunistic price increases.
Chiang Rai and Myanmar border price shock
In Chiang Rai, some petrol stations ran out of fuel on the evening of 3 March, closed early, and officials including provincial energy chief Porasak Ngamsomphak and commerce chief Suphamit Tengpae inspected border areas around Mae Sai and Mae Chan.
Across the border in Tachileik in Myanmar, prices for bottled fuel surged: daytime quotes for 1.5 litres ranged from 100 to 200 baht, rising to 250 baht in the evening, sometimes for only 700 millilitres, which further encouraged motorists in Chiang Rai to completely fill their tanks.