BANGKOK, Thailand – Thailand stays on the US currency watchlist but the all-clear is in sight. The country now only meets one of three trigger criteria, down from two previously.
The US Treasury’s half-year report from July 2026 again names Thailand as one of ten monitored economies. But the assessment has improved: the current account surplus dropped below the critical three percent of GDP threshold.
Only one criterion still grates on US
The only remaining red flag is the bilateral trade surplus with the United States, which still sits above the American benchmark. Thailand had previously broken two of the three test criteria.
The Kasikorn Research Center believes this improvement makes removal likely at the next review. If the country keeps breaching at most one criterion, a delisting is within reach.
China, Japan, Germany also on list
Alongside Thailand, the US Treasury also tracks China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Vietnam. From Europe, Germany, Ireland and Switzerland are on the list.
The designation does not carry immediate sanctions. But it signals deeper scrutiny from Washington on exchange rate policies.
Data from before 2026 not included
The current report relies on figures up to December 2025. Thailand’s economic moves in 2026 did not factor into the analysis.
The Kasikorn Research Center expects the current account surplus to stay below the US threshold going forward. That paves the way for removal at the next check.
Bank of Thailand interventions seen as stabilising
The US agency explicitly acknowledges that the Bank of Thailand’s forex interventions aim to keep orderly market conditions. They are not intended to give an unfair trade advantage.
The research house views this as a positive signal for Bangkok’s currency policy approach.
US shifts focus to capital flows
The report shows a shift in emphasis. The US Treasury no longer just looks at whether a central bank intervenes in forex markets. Greater weight now goes to transparency, justification of interventions and the policy toolkit.
The ministry is also scrutinising capital flow controls and regulations more closely. Mentioned are a higher threshold for repatriating foreign income, a ban on certain derivatives deals with foreigners, and stricter reporting rules for large gold transactions.
Next review expected to clear Thailand
The Kasikorn Research Center expects Thailand to be struck from the watchlist at the next review. The country now meets only one of three criteria, and the US Treasury recognises the Bank of Thailand’s forex interventions as market-stabilising.