BANGKOK, THAILAND – A marine researcher has warned that a Super El Niño could make 2025 the hottest year on record, as Europe grapples with unprecedented heatwaves.
What Thon Thamrongnawasawat observed from Bangkok
Marine researcher Thon Thamrongnawasawat took to Facebook on Monday to share his concerns, which quickly resonated through Thai media. Thon, who is the Assistant Dean for Special Affairs at Kasetsart University’s Faculty of Fisheries, stated that Europe’s current heatwave is not an isolated incident but a precursor to the global impacts of an approaching Super El Niño.
He noted that such heatwaves usually arrive later in the year and are less severe. For Thon, this pattern is not coincidental, describing it as a year when the planet reaches the peak of its fury. This is a stark statement from someone who typically researches coral and sea temperatures with a more measured approach.
France experiences its hottest day since records began
France has reported exceptionally high temperatures. The national heat index, an average of day and night temperatures from 30 weather stations, reached 29.8 degrees Celsius, the highest since records began in 1947. In Pissos, the thermometer indicated 44.3 degrees Celsius, and Bordeaux recorded 41.1 degrees Celsius. Fifty-four departments were under a red heatwave alert.
Contrary to some reports, Paris itself did not experience the highest temperatures, reaching only around 38 degrees Celsius on Monday. Meanwhile, Spain also endured scorching heat, with Andújar measuring 45.1 degrees Celsius and even the cooler San Sebastián reaching nearly 40 degrees Celsius. At least 18 people died in France due to the heat.
When the search for cooling ends in tragedy
A secondary tragedy is unfolding along France’s rivers and lakes. At least 40 people drowned while seeking relief in unguarded waters, with many of the victims being young individuals. Following a crisis meeting, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu described the situation as a tragic cluster and called the drowned individuals the first victims of the crisis facing the country.
Other distressing incidents also made headlines. In the south of France, a mother found her two and four-year-old children lifeless in their heated family car. Near Bordeaux, three elderly individuals aged between 80 and 95 succumbed to the heat. These older individuals are particularly vulnerable during such weather conditions.
Why Europe is hit harder by the heat than Thailand
For people in Thailand, temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius might not sound like an emergency. This is different in Europe, and Thon clearly identifies the reason. Large parts of the continent’s infrastructure are not designed for such extreme temperatures. Many homes, particularly in older buildings, lack air conditioning, and residents are simply not accustomed to prolonged heat.
Adding to this is the speed of the warming, which has surprised even experts. According to the World Meteorological Organization, Europe is warming more than twice as fast as the global average. What was once considered a “summer of the century” is now occurring every few years. Long-term data also confirms that Thailand itself has become measurably hotter.
The Omega Block: How a heat dome forms
The extreme weather situation is attributed to a weather pattern with a distinctive name. Meteorologists refer to it as an Omega Block because the air current takes on the shape of the Greek letter: a bubble of hot air in the center, with cooler air on the edges. Clair Barnes of Imperial College London explains that this formation barely moves.
Because the system is so sluggish, there is no cooling effect. There is no wind, no breeze, no respite, Barnes stated. Simultaneously, the block draws hot air from the Sahara northward, intensifying the heat. Climate change exacerbates both issues, driving peak temperatures higher while also leading to more severe rainfall when the pattern eventually shifts.
What a Super El Niño actually means
El Niño is a natural oscillation in the Pacific Ocean where trade winds weaken, allowing warm surface water to shift eastward. On June 11, the US climate agency NOAA confirmed that the warm phase has officially begun. The term “super” is used when sea surface temperatures exceed the normal average by more than two degrees Celsius, a rare extreme event.
In the past 25 years, there have been only two such events: 2015/16 and 2023/24. NOAA currently estimates a 63 percent probability that the ongoing phase will develop into a very strong event by winter. This could lead to 2026 or 2027 surpassing the 2024 record as the hottest year in history.
Thailand prepares for water, not drought
While Europe suffers under the heat, Thailand is looking to the skies and the upcoming rainy season. Minister of Industry Varawut Silpa-archa has placed the Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand on the highest alert. The focus is on low-lying industrial zones where any flooding could immediately threaten billions in assets.
The economic provinces of Chon Buri, Rayong, and Chachoengsao are of particular concern. These areas host over 103,000 companies with a combined registered capital exceeding 2.19 trillion Baht. A single severe rainfall event in the wrong location could disrupt supply chains and cause damage far beyond the region.
What this means for expats and travelers
For Thailand, Thon outlines a four-phase forecast. The first, milder phase will last until July, while the most severe period is expected from February to May of next year. During this time, perceived temperatures could reach 50 degrees Celsius locally, coupled with risks of wildfires, fine dust pollution, and new coral bleaching along the country’s coasts and reefs.
Those living or vacationing in Thailand should take the warning signs seriously, especially older individuals with cardiovascular issues. International health insurance for expats and a cool retreat are not luxuries during such phases. Guidance on heat protection can be found in the heat protection guide for practical advice on how to cope with the heat.