BANGKOK, Thailand – Thailand’s tourism strategists are forced to revise their plans as the escalating Middle East conflict compels the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) to lower its long-haul visitor target for 2026 to 10 million from 11 million. Simultaneously, the authority is grappling with rising hotel prices and new competition from Vietnam and China.
Nahost-Konflikt hat Langstreckenziel kassiert
TAT Governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool acknowledged that ongoing tensions jeopardized the authority’s projections. The initial goal of 11 million long-haul visitors for 2026 is no longer achievable.
“Since the conflict broke out on February 28 and lasted for more than three months, the Middle East market has practically disappeared,”
explained Chiravadee Khunsub, deputy governor for international marketing. Typically, around 800,000 visitors per year originate from this region.
30 Prozent weniger Sitzplätze Ă¼ber Nahost-Drehkreuze
The conflict has led to an estimated 30 percent drop in long-haul seat capacity via Middle Eastern hubs. The TAT must now adapt and reduce its reliance on these air traffic nodes.
Thapanee emphasized that air connectivity is crucial for tourism recovery. By 2027, the TAT aims to restore passenger seat capacity to over 100 percent of the 2019 level, when Thailand welcomed nearly 40 million international tourists.
DirektflĂ¼ge schĂ¼tzen, Drehkreuze umbauen
The authority is now implementing a “3R” strategy: Retain, Reshape, Recovery. The first objective is to maintain existing direct flight connections, particularly during the off-season, a challenging task given higher oil prices and fuel uncertainty.
In reshaping its hubs, the TAT is focusing more on East Asian airlines such as EVA Air, China Airlines, and Korean Air. Turkish Airlines, with its Istanbul hub, remains a vital partner for strong connections from European cities.
Langstrecken-Touristen sind die GroĂŸverdiener
Visitors from long-haul markets tend to stay longer and spend more. In 2025, they generated 685 billion Baht in revenue, a 13.6 percent increase. Europe contributed 8.25 million arrivals, and the Americas 1.57 million.
Chiravadee expressed confidence, stating,
“Tourists from Europe and America have remained stable. These markets are resilient and can recover quickly.”
The top 10 long-haul markets in 2025 included Russia, the United Kingdom, USA, Germany, France, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, Canada, and Poland.
FĂ¼nf-Sterne-Zimmer fĂ¼r 7.000 Baht – Vietnam lockt gĂ¼nstiger
Thailand aims to focus more on value tourism, attracting travelers who spend more overall. However, competition is intensifying: a five-star hotel room in Thailand often costs around 7,000 Baht per night.
In Vietnam, the price is approximately 3,000 Baht, with Chinese cities like Kunming offering similar affordability.
“Thailand needs to compete more clearly on experience, service, and brand strength, not just on price,”
said Chiravadee.
China und Indien sollen Kurzstrecke stabilisieren
Nearby Asian markets account for approximately 65 percent of all international arrivals. Pattaraanong Na Chiangmai, responsible for marketing in Asia and the South Pacific, targets around 21 million short-haul arrivals for 2026.
China is a focus, with a target of 7.5 million visitors. In the first five months of 2026, 2.31 million Chinese tourists arrived, an 18.35 percent increase. The film “Love Letter to Grandma,” filmed in Thailand, is expected to boost interest in locations like Bangkok’s Yaowarat district.
SĂ¼dkorea bricht um 20 Prozent ein
While China is showing growth, South Korea presents a concern. Arrivals in the first five months dropped by nearly 20 percent to 539,000 visitors. The TAT attributes this to several factors.
These include strong competition from Vietnam with more affordable options and increased flights, a weaker South Korean economy, and the strong Baht. Fewer direct connections to Thailand also contribute to the decline.
Sorge um Indien-Geschäft durch Ende der Visafreiheit
For India, the TAT has set a target of 2.59 million visitors by 2026. However, the cabinet’s decision to end the 60-day visa exemption for 93 countries could impact this segment.
The full extent of these effects remains to be seen once the change officially takes effect. The authority is observing the development with concern, as India is one of its key growth markets.
2027 wird zum Stresstest fĂ¼r Thailands Tourismus-Pläne
Thailand’s challenges have become more complex, involving not just increasing visitor numbers but also rebuilding flight connections, diversifying hubs, and enhancing brand positioning for higher-spending guests. For 2027, the TAT plans to manage its overseas offices under a new framework aimed at broader market reach, extended demand throughout the year, and deeper collaboration with airlines and tourism partners. The seat capacity target is set to be the decisive test.