BANGKOK, THAILAND – A politician from the People’s Party warned that Thailand had reached its lowest birth rate in 75 years and was rapidly becoming an ageing society. By 2036, one third of the population could be over 60 while millions of workers are missing, with serious consequences for the economy and social systems.
Births at 75-year low as population shrinks
People’s Party lawmaker Natthaya Boonphakdee said on Thursday that Thailand’s birth rate had fallen to its lowest level in 75 years. At the same time, she said, the demographic situation was worsening because of an ageing population.
Deaths had exceeded births for five consecutive years. As a result, the country was in a prolonged population decline that was, according to Natthaya, continuing to accelerate.
Latest figures: fewer births, more deaths
Natthaya presented updated population data and put the number of births in 2025 at 416,574, almost 50,000 fewer than in the previous year. She said deaths in 2025 stood at 559,684.
This meant the country recorded a negative population balance for the fifth year in a row. The figures underlined that the demographic downturn had become entrenched.
Outlook: births may fall below 400,000
For the coming year, Natthaya forecast a further deterioration if conditions did not change. She said births could fall below 400,000 for the first time.
She warned that Thailand was heading towards a deeper demographic imbalance. The trend was not only persistent but gaining momentum, she added.
Super-aged society by 2036: one third over 60
By 2036, about one third of Thailand’s population could be over 60 years of age, according to Natthaya’s projection. That would turn the country into a “super-aged society”.
At the same time, the country could lose more than 2.5 million people of working age over the next ten years. This, she argued, would intensify long-term risks for the labour market and economic growth.
Economic impact: shrinking labour force, ageing domestic market
Natthaya linked the demographic shift to a shrinking workforce and declining economic performance in the years ahead. Observers pointed to a structural tension in which the domestic market was ageing and shrinking at the same time.
As a consequence, labour shortages could become significantly more severe. This would increase pressure on businesses, productivity and state systems that depended on contributors.
Survey: desire for children remains, but costs deter
Despite the figures, a survey by Mahidol University showed that younger generations still wanted to have children. According to the report, this applied to both Generation Y and Generation Z.
Respondents cited high costs, concerns about quality of life and a lack of childcare during working hours as key obstacles. The study therefore pointed more to structural barriers than to a falling desire for children.
Criticism of government: not enough concrete family support
Members of the People’s Party criticised the government’s policy direction and referred to its policy statement covering a total of 70 areas. In their view, it lacked clear measures to support families, particularly a direct framework for childcare.
They also said relief on living costs remained limited. Measures announced on 11 April to cushion fuel prices did not reduce broader household expenses sufficiently, according to the criticism.
Costly school start: May as a burden for families
The People’s Party also highlighted rising expenses linked to the reopening of schools. May was singled out as a month with particularly high costs for families.
As a result, the financial pressure on parents was increasing. Households could come under greater strain when several cost items fell due at the same time.
Two-phase plan: rapid relief and system change
In response, the People’s Party proposed a two-stage transition towards greater welfare. Phase one was intended to address acute cost problems, particularly school and household expenses.
This phase included a universal child allowance that would not be limited to low-income households. Instead, all families would receive support for newborns.
School budget and free meals: fewer dropouts, better nutrition
The proposal also outlined a “back-to-school” budget to support low-income households as well as farmers and fishers. The aim was to reduce the risk of school dropouts.
Planned measures included two free meals per student per day and higher per capita allocations for schools. This was intended to provide breakfast and lunch while easing household budgets.
From 2028: support from pregnancy and expanded nurseries
The second phase was scheduled to begin in the 2028 fiscal year and would finance childcare through monthly allowances. Payments would start from the fifth month of pregnancy and continue into early childhood development.
In addition, municipal facilities for children from zero to two years of age were to be established nationwide. Local systems would offer care until 6 p.m. to match parents’ working hours.
“Thailand is facing a rapidly worsening demographic imbalance that demands swift and comprehensive family support policies.”
said Natthaya Boonphakdee, People’s Party lawmaker.