SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE – A regional survey found that a narrow majority in Southeast Asia would side with China over the United States in a crisis, while many still preferred neutrality.
Survey and timing: “State of Southeast Asia 2026”
The poll was conducted between 5 January and 20 February 2026 and covered 2,008 respondents from all 11 ASEAN member states.
The results were published in the annual “State of Southeast Asia 2026” report by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, with Timor-Leste included for the first time following its ASEAN accession in 2025.
Narrow lead for China, but no clear blocs
According to the report, 52% of respondents said they would support China if forced to choose between the two major powers, while 48% would opt for the United States.
The institute stressed that the small gap pointed less to a clear shift and more to a region that remained broadly divided.
Recent trend: shifting preferences
The survey fitted into a pattern of fluctuating preferences in recent years. In 2024 China led, while in 2025 the US regained the advantage.
In 2026 China again moved to the front, which the report said reflected ongoing dynamism and uncertainty in the region’s strategic orientation.
Countries leaning toward China, led by Indonesia
Among states favouring Beijing, Indonesia recorded the highest share with 80.1%, followed by Malaysia at 68% and Singapore at 66.3%.
Majorities for China were also measured in Timor-Leste with 58.2%, Thailand with 55% and Brunei with 53.5%.
Countries leaning toward the US, with the Philippines most decisive
On the US side, the Philippines stood out with 76.8%, followed by Myanmar at 61.4% and Cambodia at 61%.
Vietnam also tended more toward Washington, with 59.2%, while Laos was described in the report as almost evenly split.
What drives the gap: economy versus security
The report attributed the sharp differences between countries mainly to varying economic and security ties.
States with high economic dependence on China tended to lean toward Beijing, while those with closer security relations with the US – such as the Philippines – remained more firmly in the American camp.
Neutrality remains the goal, but pressure is rising
Despite the slight overall tilt toward China, the institute said most respondents fundamentally preferred a neutral stance.
At the same time, the report warned that economic and security pressures could push states toward clearer alignments over the long term.
Outlook: expectations of better ties with China
More than 55.6% of respondents expected their country’s relations with China to improve over the next three years.
This expectation, alongside the still narrow overall split, pointed to China’s growing significance in the region.