BANGKOK, THAILAND – Thailand’s private sector sharply lowered its 2026 growth forecast, now expecting GDP to expand by only 1.2–1.6% instead of 1.6–2.0%, citing rising energy costs, global supply chain disruptions and weaker international tourism.
New forecast points to weaker growth
Representatives of the private sector expected Thailand’s economy in 2026 to grow by only 1.2–1.6%, down from a previous projection of 1.6–2.0%. The revision signaled a more cautious view of the country’s near‑term economic prospects.
The assessment came from the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB). The committee was regarded as an important voice for the economy because it brought together trade, industry and banking interests.
Energy prices seen as key drag
The JSCCIB cited sharply rising energy costs as a central reason for the downgrade. Higher energy prices made production, transport and services more expensive, weighing on overall economic momentum.
Energy‑intensive sectors felt these cost increases particularly quickly, as they fed through into delivery prices and profit margins. This could slow investment and put pressure on competitiveness.
Global supply chain issues hit trade and industry
In addition, the JSCCIB pointed to global disruptions in supply chains. Such interruptions could lead to delays, higher procurement costs and greater uncertainty in production processes.
For an export‑oriented economy like Thailand, stable supply chains were especially important because many industries depended on intermediate goods and predictable logistics. When these factors fluctuated, corporate planning security suffered.
Falling international tourism adds to risks
Another burden, according to the JSCCIB, was a decline in international tourism. Fewer foreign visitors typically affected revenue in hotels, restaurants, transport services and retail.
Tourism was considered a key economic engine because it generated demand across many sectors and supported employment. When visitor numbers fell, this could further dampen domestic economic activity.
Inflation expected to rise in 2026
Alongside weaker growth, the JSCCIB also anticipated higher inflation. The inflation rate for 2026 was estimated at 2.0–3.0%.
This forecast was above the committee’s earlier expectation, which the original source described only as “up from” a previous range. Rising energy prices could be a major driver, as they tended to feed through to many goods and services.