BANGKOK, THAILAND – Weeks before the February 8 general election, Thailand’s reform‑oriented People’s Party led a major online opinion survey by a wide margin.
People’s Party dominates online preference poll
The survey by Thairath Online, conducted from January 4 to 9 with up to 40,085 participants, showed the People’s Party leading party preferences with 41.36 percent support, far ahead of all rivals. Pheu Thai ranked second with 13.24 percent, narrowly followed by the ruling Bhumjaithai Party on 13.08 percent, while the Democrat Party recorded 10.39 percent.
Smaller parties trail in single digits
Other parties polled in the mid to low single digits: Ruam Thai Sang Chart received 9.83 percent, the Setthakit Party 4.26 percent and Thai Sang Thai 2.65 percent. The poll measured only popularity, and under the majority voting system—where 80 percent of House seats are decided in constituencies—local dynamics ultimately determined the distribution of parliamentary mandates.
Nattapong “Teng” leads race for prime minister
In the preferred prime minister question, the People’s Party also came out clearly ahead. Nattapong Ruangpanyawut, known as “Teng”, led the field with 33.25 percent support.
Conservative figures follow in leadership rankings
Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul placed second with 13.55 percent, just ahead of Yotsanun Wongsawat of Pheu Thai on 12.71 percent, while former premier Abhisit Vejjajiva scored 10.40 percent. Other contenders remained in single digits: Pirapan Salirathavibhaga of Ruam Thai Sang Chart registered 8.87 percent, Gen Rangsi Kitiyanasop 5.65 percent and Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan 2.96 percent.
Urban bias and limited representativeness
The Thairath Online survey was among the largest of the campaign but mainly reflected the views of its readers and was not a representative snapshot of the population. According to the data, 48.48 percent of respondents lived in Bangkok and its surrounding areas, with the central region (including eastern and western provinces) accounting for 16.88 percent and the northeast for 14.53 percent.
Rural and southern voters underrepresented
The north made up 10.81 percent of responses and the south 9.29 percent, leaving rural and southern constituencies—where traditional networks and conservative forces are strong—clearly underrepresented. The age profile was also skewed: people aged 46 to 59 formed the largest group at 32.71 percent, followed by those 60 and over with 19.85 percent and 36‑ to 45‑year‑olds with 19.55 percent, while only 10.20 percent of participants were between 18 and 25.
Echoes of 2023 and changing institutional landscape
The rise of the People’s Party evoked memories of the 2023 election, when the Move Forward Party unexpectedly emerged as the strongest force. The current party was regarded as Move Forward’s political successor and continued its reform‑oriented agenda.
Senate no longer able to block party’s premier
Unlike in 2023, the Senate would no longer be able in 2026 to block a People’s Party candidate for prime minister. However, conservative forces retained significant influence and were expected to continue constraining any government led by the progressive camp.
Two main political blocs emerge
Politically, the contest was coalescing around two core options: a pro‑democratic coalition under the leadership of the People’s Party, and a conservative bloc headed by Bhumjaithai. As in 2023, coalition negotiations after the vote were seen as inevitable, with constituency‑level mandates—rather than poll numbers—ultimately determining who would form a government.
Thanathorn draws a red line on Anutin
In recent days, a statement by Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, founder of the dissolved Future Forward Party and now head of the Progressive Movement, who was viewed as a political mentor to the People’s Party, gained particular weight.
“The People’s Party will under no circumstances support Anutin Charnvirakul as prime minister.”
said Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, head of the Progressive Movement.
Coalition speculation narrowed by public stance
This declaration sharply reduced speculation about possible post‑election cooperation between the two camps. At the same time, past elections showed how far real outcomes could diverge from nationwide sentiment: in 2023, Bhumjaithai secured more than 14 percent of parliamentary seats despite winning only 2.99 percent in the nationwide party‑list vote, underscoring the strength of local networks.
Allegations of vote buying in the northeast
During the ongoing campaign, reports of vote buying increased, with large sums of cash said to be circulating in several regions. In the northeastern province of Ubon Ratchathani, a statement by Pheu Thai candidate Watcharapol Chueakhong drew particular attention.
“Around 1 billion baht is estimated to be distributed in an area with 11 constituencies.”
said Watcharapol Chueakhong, Pheu Thai candidate.
Money flows seen as invisible factor in tight races
These funds were reported to target key areas and could decisively influence close races—an effect not captured by opinion surveys. Tightly contested constituencies could therefore produce outcomes that diverged from clear national polling trends.
Election outcome shaped by old power structures
As election day on February 8 approached, the potential gap between national popularity and local reality came into sharper focus. The People’s Party dominated published numbers, but seat allocation would be decided constituency by constituency.
Polls as context, not prediction
After the vote, parties were expected to negotiate coalitions based on the mandates they actually secured. Opinion surveys thus provided context rather than a firm forecast, while the balance of power between the progressive camp and the conservative bloc remained the decisive backdrop to any future government formation.