BANGKOK, THAILAND – Thailand entered the 2026 tourism year with ambitious arrival targets despite a sharp drop in foreign visitors, higher aviation fees and mounting security concerns.
Tourism slide in 2025 and ambitious 2026 goal
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) set an official target of 36.7 million foreign arrivals for 2026, a planned increase of 10.35% compared with the previous year. In 2025 the country recorded only 32.9 million international visitors, a decline of 7.23% from 2024. Revenue from inbound tourism fell by 4.7% to ฿1.53 trillion, while the sector as a whole, including domestic travel, generated ฿2.7 trillion.
Shocks expose vulnerability of the sector
The year 2025 underlined how exposed tourism was to external shocks such as crime, natural disasters and political disruption. A catastrophic flood in Hat Yai in Songkhla province led to a collapse in demand, with authorities at one point fearing an annual drop in arrivals of up to 9.8%. Recovery only emerged in the final weeks of the year, limiting the full‑year decline to 7.23%.
Safety image, crime and regional competition
Internationally, Thailand’s safety image came under sharper scrutiny after the widely reported kidnapping of a Chinese actor, who was later rescued. Reports of road accidents involving tourists, missing insurance cover and donation appeals to pay high hospital bills further unsettled potential visitors. Analysts also pointed to reputational damage from Thailand’s image as a hub for fraud and scam centres and from persistent corruption problems.
Government crackdowns and visa uncertainty
In response, the government intensified safety campaigns and nationwide raids. These actions, however, also created uncertainty around visa and entry rules for foreign travellers. At the same time, Thailand faced stronger competition from neighbours such as Vietnam, promoting “cleaner, safer and better organised” tourism products, and Malaysia, which continued to report high visitor numbers.
Shifting visitor mix and role of domestic travel
Despite the downturn, volumes remained substantial, with Malaysia providing 4.5 million arrivals in 2025, followed by China with 4.4 million, India with 2.4 million, Russia with 1.8 million and South Korea with 1.5 million. Demand from China stayed below earlier peaks and was marked by visible caution. The visitor mix shifted as long‑haul travellers took a larger share, stayed longer but spent more cautiously, while weaker performance from regional short‑haul markets helped explain the revenue decline.
Domestic tourism cushions the blow
The domestic market helped stabilise the industry. Thai residents undertook 202.37 million internal trips, an increase of 2.7%. Income from domestic tourism rose 3.69% to ฿1.16 trillion, with a 2026 goal of 205 million domestic trips.
Stronger baht and rising geopolitical risks
Appreciation of the baht against the US dollar, linked in part to higher gold prices, made Thailand more expensive for foreign visitors. In several source markets this eroded real purchasing power and contributed to lower per‑capita earnings. Border tensions with Cambodia and a regional war added further uncertainty, and military analysts considered another phase of escalation possible, while a general election in February was expected to put political stability back in the spotlight.
New aviation fees from February 2026
Amid these pressures, air travel costs were set to rise. The Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) scheduled higher charges from 1 February 2026, approved by the National Civil Aviation Board on 3 December 2025. The Passenger Service Fee was due to increase from ฿15 to ฿25 per person for international passengers entering and leaving the country, and the departure tax was set to climb from ฿790 to ฿1,120, an increase of around 57%, adding ฿390 for every foreign departure.
CAAT finances and limited fee types
The fees would be collected by airlines through ticket prices. CAAT, which received no direct state funding and was operating at a deficit, expected cost coverage by 2028, supported by reserves of around ฿1.4 billion and a workforce of more than 500 employees. Officially the agency had the right to levy four types of fees but used only entry and exit charges in order to limit additional burdens on passengers.
High-stakes target and official line
TAT governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool confirmed that 36.7 million arrivals formed the new benchmark for 2026.
“The target is clearly defined, and the development of flight capacity, arrivals and spending is being closely monitored.”
said Thapanee Kiatphaibool, TAT governor. Short‑haul markets were expected to continue providing more than 70% of visitors, while long‑haul markets remained crucial for overall revenue because of longer stays, with the ministry planning detailed analysis of both segments in 2026.
Risks and questions over 2026 strategy
Key risks remained prominent: crime and perceptions of safety, natural disasters such as the Hat Yai flood, border and regional tensions with Cambodia, currency effects from the strong baht and rising taxes on air tickets. The government nevertheless held to its target, acknowledging that the tourism‑dependent economy required structural adjustment and new investment from any administration taking office in 2026. The figures for 2025 – 7.23% fewer foreign tourists, falling income and rising costs – left open whether the 2026 plan represented confident strategy or politically driven optimism, and what the impact would be if the numbers again failed to add up.